defl0 Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 http://www.forgeworld.co.uk/Downloads/Product/PDF/X/Xiphon_Heresy.pdf What are your guys thoughts on the Xiphon? My first take on it is that it's very specialized at killing enemy fliers, which is fine for Horus heresy, considering you aren't really shooting flying daemon princes and the like. That said, it's a glass cannon at a 2 bill cost and I don't think it really kills enemy fliers that well. I mean you figure you are hitting 1.32 times and after a jink you are hitting .99 times. So against a av 12 you are only glancing half the times, or penning 1/3 of the time. For something this specialized, i feel like you should paying to have a solid chance to one shotting a similar cost model. I mean something like a fire raptor is pretty similar in points and would murder this flier AND is designed to hunt ground units. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesh Kadesh Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The Xiphon is hitting 88% of the time with its TL Lascannons, dealing against AV12 66% chance of a glance. Throw on the Xiphon Missile, and its glancing 50% of the time, but only hitting 66% with the Missile. Out of 4 shots it has a greater than 100% chance of forcing a hull point at least. With Strafing Run, its BS5 has a really decent chance of taking on other light vehicles on the deck, but that D3 rolls on the damage table makes even vs AV12 flyers at risk. Sure they can always Jink, but unless it's a Caestus or a Storm Eagle (both quite rare in my experience due to how underpowered their weaponry is) the flyer serves no real purpose if its Jinking. Snap Shotting with a Fire Raptor might still net 3-4 hits, but you don't take a Fire Raptor to kill 3-4 models a turn. Sure, a Fire Raptor can kill/nullfiy this vehicle, but so can this one. Plus a Fire Raptor firing at this isn't a fire raptor shredding Marines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krikey Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The Xiphon is hitting 88% of the time with its TL Lascannons, dealing against AV12 66% chance of a glance. Throw on the Xiphon Missile, and its glancing 50% of the time, but only hitting 66% with the Missile. Out of 4 shots it has a greater than 100% chance of forcing a hull point at least. If there is a chance of failure with one shot, there is still a chance of failure with four shots, though a lesser chance. You can't have greater than 100% chance of an event occurring. ~K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesh Kadesh Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Eh. I see pooped you mean, dealing with AND/ORs from a purely mathematically point of view. From a simplistic point of view, though, you are looking at 2 shots which each have an 88-97% of hitting, and a 67% chance of glancing, while the 67-83% chance of hitting and 50% glancing means that in all probability, you are looking at as near as possible to 100%. I was just simplistically adding fractions together :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krikey Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Heheh. The Xiphon actually has an 18% chance of completely failing to damage AV12, even if firing both TLLC and XRML. Twin-Linked Lascannon BS4: 1/3 shots miss Twin-linked: reroll misses 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9 still miss completely (11.11%) Str 9 vs AV12: 1-2 fail to damage, 3 glances, 4-6 penetrate TLLC shots that hit but fail to damage 8/9 hit; 1/3 fail to damage 8/9 x 1/3 = 8/27 hit but fail to damage (29.63%) TLLC shots that either miss or fail to damage 1/9 miss; 8/27 fail to damage 3/27 + 8/27 = 11/27 of all lascannon shots miss or hit but fail to damage (40.74%) Xiphon Rotary Missile Launcher BS4: 1/3 shots miss (2 shots) No hits: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9 (11.11%) One hit: 1 - ((1/3 x 1/3) + (2/3 + 2/3)) = 4/9 (44.44%) Two hits: 2/3 x 2/3 = 4/9 (44.44%) 1/9 uses miss completely (11.11%) Str 8 vs AV12: 1-3 fail to damage, 4 glances, 5-6 penetrate XRML shots that hit but fail to damage One hit: 4/9 uses get one hit; 1/2 of hits fail to damage 4/9 x 1/2 = 2/9 uses get a single hit but fail to damage (22.22%) Two hits: 4/9 uses get two hits; 1/2 of hits fail to damage 4/9 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/9 uses get two hits but fail to damage (11.11%) 2/9 + 1/9 = 1/3 uses hit at least once but fail to damage (33.33%) XRML shots that either miss or fail to damage 1/9 miss; 1/3 fail to damage 1/9 + 3/9 = 4/9 of all XRML uses miss or hit at least but fail to damage (44.44%) Both TLLC and XRML being used but failing to cause any damage 11/27 x 4/9 = 44/243 (18.11%) However, it also has a pretty good chance to completely destroy an AV12 target (52.12% 32.12%) TLLC: Explosion BS4, TL: 8/9 hit Str9: 1/2 penetrate AP2: 1/6 destroy target 8/9 x 1/2 x 1/6 = 8/104 = 2/27 uses cause the target to explode (7.41%) XRML: Explosion BS4, 2 shots: 4/9 one hit; 4/9 two hits Str8: 1/3 penetrate AP2: 1/6 destroy target, but three chances 1/9 miss (11.11%) 4/9 x 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 = 500/1944 hit once but don't destroy (25.72%) 4/9 x 125/216 x 125/216 = 62500/419904 hit twice but do not destroy target (14.88%) The fractions get really messy here, so ... 1 - (.1111 + .2572 + .1488) = .5171 = 48.29% chance of a use resulting in an exploded target Attack by Xiphon causes an explosion on an AV12 target .5171 x .9259 = .4788 1 - .4788 = 52.12% chance of exploding target (See correction a couple of posts below) ~K p.s. My math could be wrong. I didn't do a lot of double checking. edit: Kitwulfen caught a nasty error. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nusquam Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 I love the model. I plan to have mine come on shallow to take advantage of that huge range for the ML. I'm also confused as to why an interceptor can take strafing run And doesn't have things like combat interdiction from the thunderbolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flint13 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 ^^ That is a good point. I'm glad it's still in the experimental rules phase. It did strike me as more anti-light vehicle than anti-flyer, especially with Strafing Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonstalker Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Krikey: One point of contention with your math. It assumes that you roll a 3 for the number of times you can roll on the damage table for the Cluster Warheads. It's a d3, so it could be a single roll on the table, two and take the highest, or three and take the highest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krikey Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Very good point! That changes thing a bit for the chance to explode an AV12 target, then ... 30.1% no destroy single hit 32.1% no destroy double hit 11.11% miss 73.31 no destroy by XRML; 92.59% no destroy by TLLC 1 - (.7331 + .9259) = 32.12% chance of the Xiphon destroying an AV12 target in a single pass. That's still pretty high but not as bizarrely so as my previous calc indicated. (Chances are I missed something else as well, or even blew this calc twice. I'm assuming an average of 2 on the d3 roll. Also, my calcs are based on a bare-bones Xiphon. Ground tracking auguries would make it even more deadly -- misses would drop to 2.8% for the TLLC and for the Xyphon, no hits would drop to 2.8%, one hit would drop to 27.8%, and two hits would increase to 69.4%, affecting everything else accordingly) :) ~K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
defl0 Posted March 31, 2015 Author Share Posted March 31, 2015 Wow. Some how I totally missed the TL lascannon... That said, for it's price it still doesn't quite seem like a high enough success rate. Especially since you might be on the board already and have to shoot second. The deredeo Dread seems like more of a deterrent simply because of interceptor. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonstalker Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Wow. Some how I totally missed the TL lascannon... That said, for it's price it still doesn't quite seem like a high enough success rate. Especially since you might be on the board already and have to shoot second. The deredeo Dread seems like more of a deterrent simply because of interceptor. Right? That, and 15% of the time, even if a Lightning/Xiphon jinks, the Deredeo will still kill it in one round of shooting with interceptor fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helterskelter Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Team it up with a deredeo! And terror assault. Coz i love that potential night time protection. That shall be the entirety of my input on the subject, i take my leave *cape swishing exit* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesh Kadesh Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Wow. Some how I totally missed the TL lascannon... That said, for it's price it still doesn't quite seem like a high enough success rate. Especially since you might be on the board already and have to shoot second. The deredeo Dread seems like more of a deterrent simply because of interceptor. Right? That, and 15% of the time, even if a Lightning/Xiphon jinks, the Deredeo will still kill it in one round of shooting with interceptor fire. And forcing a jink completely nullifies its potential as a damage dealer. Edit and Night Lords can do quite well with it too, as can Iron Hands with Perturabo. Both of those get Deep Striking Terminators and the latter on the first turn. Night Lords get a 50% chance of 2+ Jink, while Perty grants first turn Interceptor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depthcharge12 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I guess a Deredeo shouldn't be the huge deterrent, it's the point cost. It's not incredibly hard to kill a dread if you already have AT on the field. The only problem is is that you use a large amount of points to bring a Xiphon on the field and need another unit to perform its role for it. You'd mainly be using to kill Fire raptors or AV13, but both of those units can easily smoke this one (assuming AV13 is a Sicaran, Deredeo, or kheresnaught). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesh Kadesh Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 And people laugh when I say that Legion lists play a lot like Eldar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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