REF EVENT - Timeline

[simison]

Easy fix.

[Sigismund229]

Also, how soon after the Warbringers and co. arrive in the north will the Suzerainty be declared? I'm wandering if there would be time for the Lions to launch an attack on the Warbringers before they became potential allies.

[simison]

*comes charging in*

 

I have a reliable Warp travel measurement! As you all are vaguely aware, a quarter of my project tasks involves reading through the canon HH books for ideas, potential Great Crusade campaigns, and so on. I've been rereading through Tempest, and, boy, am I glad I did so. In the background section leading up to Calth, Roboute and the bulk of the Ultramarines returned to the Sol System after a lengthy campaign to refit and resupply. It's cut short when Horus orders the Ultramarines to assemble at Calth. 

 

This is what Forgeworld says of the journey on page 33: "For Guilliman and the main body of his Legion travelling along once-stable warp conduits, directly to Macragge, the journey was arduous and time consuming. It would be almost eighteen months sidereal before he would arrive, and during the voyage his fleet was becalmed twice by aberrant warp confluences and the heavy cruiser the Tiger's Heart was lost with all hands to the Empyrean's fury."

 

So, 18 months to get from Terra to Macragge, and it sounds like the journey was unusually long. Translating them into my calculations, it could be Chaos travel penalty factor of 2.0-2.5, as opposed to the usual 3x that I inflict on Loyalist travel during the Insurrection. Heck, maybe it is as high as 3x travel penalty. Measuring the map found in Betrayal, it's roughly 5.5 inches, while measuring from Constantium to the rough location of Caerbannog is 11 inches. 

 

Thus, traveling from Terra to Macragge is roughly travailing across half the galaxy. If we assume Guilliman was inflicted with a 2x travel penalty, this means that an ideal trip from Terra to Macragge is only a 9 month journey. Whereas utilizing the 3x penalty, it's only 6 months.

 

Therefore, using the first set, traveling across the entire galaxy in the 30k period would take 1.5 years, as opposed to the base 2 years I had been assuming for my earlier calculations. 

 

But, using the second set, a full trip across the galaxy would take only a single year during the Late Great Crusade period. 

 

So, we're looking anywhere from a 25% to a flat 50% reduction in base Warp travels times. Which means we might be shaving off anywhere from 5 to 10 years of the entire Insurrection.

 

*takes a breather*

[simison]

Beginning calculations. 

 

Set 1: Total galactic travel time is 1.5 years. Starting point is 031.M31.

 

Travel time for the Traitors to establish Dark Imperium size before First Solar War: 9 months/0.75 years. 

 

Factors working against Traitor expansion:

 

Dune Serpents guerrilla warfare: 1 year

Void Eagle and Predator hit-and-run raids: 2 year

Loyalist Planetary defenses: 1 year 

 

Total time so far: 4.75 years/4 years, 9 months. [035.M31]

 

Logistic penalty reduced from 2 years to 1.5 years. 

No change in Infrastructure penalty, which is 2 years.

 

Total time: 8.25 years/8 years, 3 months. [039.M31]

 

Logistics preparation for First Solar War, assumed to be a flat year.

 

First Solar War begins in 9.25 years/9 years, 3 months from DoR [040.M31].

 

The CL's Pacificus Campaign. Base Travel time is now 6 months/0.5 years, beginning midway through 033.M31 to represent the quick Seg. Solar pacification campaign. 

 

Negative Factors: Chaos travel penalty (x3), 6-month penalty to represent the rebellions. 3-month penalty for Infrastructure, and 3-month penalty for Logistics preparation. 

 

Total time of Pacificus Campaign: 2.5 years, ending in 036.M31. Four years until First Solar War. 

 

CL travel to Han. Base travel time: 9 months. Chaos penalty of 3x. Which equals to 18 months/1.5 years. The sacking of Han and the re-organization only equals 1 month. Current year: 037.M31, 3 years until First Solar War.

 

Here is where the travel reduction makes all of the difference. As originally hypothesized, Hectarion continues his duty of cleansing Obscurus of the Traitors and the various rebels/independents. The Dominion's Leonix Auxilia and few Crimson Lion detachments have been slowly retaking ground here, which also reduces the time it takes to subdue the entire segmentum. Continuing his travels along the northern fringe, Hectarion's next target is Mexicatii. 

 

Base travel time to Mexicatii: 4 months + Chaos penalty = 12 months/1 year. 038.M31. 

 

Now, I actually had a scenario prepared for this situation, so here goes. Unlike the Han system that was mostly abandoned, Mexicatii has been considerably bolstered by Travier for various reasons. With only 2/3rds of his Legion with him, Hectarion is facing an arduous campaign, but victory is highly likely. So, Hectarion, perhaps remembering Alexandros' orders to slay Travier (and ignoring the Warmaster's orders to ignore highly fortified targets), deems the campaign worthy, despite the defenses.

 

Now, one of the reasons Travier fortified Mexicatii and left a substantial portion of his Legion, was at the Four's bidding in case the Crimson Lions came. The moment the Crimson Lions begin assaulting the system, a series of warp storms are triggered by rituals on Mexicatii Prime. The Crimson Lions are now cut off from the greater Imperium. Furthermore, the Eagle Warriors commander holds nothing back during this siege. Although Alexandros warned Hectarion about Chaos, nothing can adequately prepare for the Crimson Lions as they are the first Legion to get a taste of the hell that the Insurrection will become. Travier's clones, Chaos blessings, malign rituals are all things the Crimson Lions endure during the siege. Debatable whether or not they will actually fight some daemons. I might want to save that for Travier's assault against Delos. 

 

Regardless, the siege lasts three whole years before Hectarion slays the Eagle Warrior Commander-High Priest and ends the warp storm ritual. It's now 041.M31. Astropathic messages finally arrive, alerting Hectarion about the First Solar War. 

 

Base Travel time to the Northern Front: 7 months + Chaos Penalty = 21 months/1 year, 9 months/1.75 years. Plus the 7 floating months from earlier, Hectarion arrives on the Northern Front in 043.M31. 

 

So, the the first defense zone is still breached, the Edict Happens, Pionus is almost mortally-wounded, and Travier's gambit still occurs. Since I've mentally written the Delian campaign without the Crimson Lions present, here's how I imagine things will go. The Halcyon Wardens resist the Eagle Warriors and send them into retreat to the second defense zone. As the Warmaster prepares to press the over-extended Traitors on the Northern Front, Hectarion and the Crimson Lions arrive. While there will be a stern rant later, Alexandros, who is heavily wounded from his duel with Travier, immediately sends Hectarion and the Crimson Lions against the Traitors.

 

Doing everything they can to redeem themselves, the Crimson Lions smash into the Eagle Warriors and, now the Godslayers (per Blunt's request). The Traitors collapse and are sent fleeing back across the segmentum borders. Alexandros rants at Hectarion, but the cold war settles in.

 

043.M31 ends with the First Solar War. 044 sees the Warmaster and Stormlord trying to outmaneuver each other as their Legions recover, but nothing besides skirmishes and a couple of minor battles happen (most without Primarchs involved). This is also the year that Pionus becomes a wraithknight (if that is still a thing). This continues until 045, where Icarion becomes desperate enough to listen to Travier, against Koschei's and K'awil's recommendation. (Koschei was actually disturbed by what he saw the Eagle Warriors do on the Northern Front.) Either one of these years might see the Old Blood incident.

 

Cue secret deployments and then the Blood Crusade begins in 046.M31. Since travel time is less of a factor, this only shortens the Blood Crusade from 2 years to 1.5 years, ending in late 047.M31. 

 

A couple of months later, the corrupted Berserkers reemerge at the dawn of 048.M31. Icarion and Travier enact the plan to ascend Morro and the Drowned in the East. What was originally estimated to being 3 years is now only 2 years and 3 months/2.25 years. 

 

In 050.M31, the Suzerainty happens, the Godslayers stuck on Zbruch, and K'awil is killed. Icarion sends the Berserkers against the Suzerainty, Nurgle Godslayers reappear and begin the march to the Suzerainty. Due to taking much less time to travel, the Godslayers are just entering the war with the Suzerainty when news of the Eastern Front collapsing arrives.

 

Essentially, 050 becomes an extremely busy year. 051.M31 opens with the Eastern Traitor Legions making full speed toward the Western Front and will arrive in one year, while the Wardens of Light march eastward. 

 

Wardens of Light arrival to Terra. 9 months + Chaos penalty = 27 months/1 year, 5 months. Late 052. 

 

The Loyalists and the Suzerainty still make a joint counter-attack as they try to kill Icarion before the Eastern Traitors arrive. Icarion is forced to abandon his HQ in the Yomi system as he and the Western Traitor Legions are forced to retreat toward Madrigal. Despite their attempts, after three months, the effort is abandoned with the Eastern Traitor Legions only 6 months out. The Suzerainty and Loyalists fall back to their respective borders and fortify. 

 

052 arrives as the corrupted Traitor Legions begin the Second Solar War, mostly ignoring the Suzerainty. Seeing this, the Suzerainty begin their counter-invasion of the Dark Imperium, aiming for Madrigal. As the Loyalist border defenses collapse at the tail end of 052, the Wardens of Light jump in to save the day. 

 

053 sees the start of the twin sieges before the cataclysmic ending happens three days into 054.

 

All that is said and done, this does indeed shave off 5 years from the Insurrection.

 

Do I need to calculate the second set? 

[Sigismund229]

So as I understand it, the Lions run rampant across Pacificus(possibly butting up against the Han evacuation convoy? Or has that idea been dropped), sack Han and then go to Mexicatii for an encore but end up bogged down there for 3 years fighting a fully chaotic Eagle Warriors, though without demons. Perhaps on Mexicatii the warp also screws with time, so the Lions don't think they've been fighting longer than a few months but in the non-warp world it's three years? Either way, three years on Mexicatii then race back to Seg.Solar and hammer into the Eagle Warriors and Godslayers?(Actually, why did you request the Godslayers blunt?). Anyways, sounds good to me

[simison]

The Han convoy is a separate event. It happens a few weeks after the Day of Revelation at the General's command. Fresh from his ambush, I imagine that the moment Hectarion hears about it, he orders the nearest Crimson Lion units to intercept. That could be a chance for some non-Primarch action that Blunt has been requesting.

 

After the Solar pacification campaign, Alexandros unleashes the Lions on Seg. Pacificus to re-impose Imperial order and to protect the Imperials rear. With the help of the Wardens of Light, (who are essentially policing their backyard) the Lions finish and then head to Obscurus to do the same. They start with the Han system, which is a quick and easy. Then they move to the Mexicatii system, which proves to be a nightmare that lasts three years, one way or another. 

 

Blunt, and really Slips, wants Morro to cripple Pionus after the Day of Revelation. The only two good spots are either the First or Second Solar War. ...actually, I think Blunt picked the Second Solar War, so that switch isn't actually necessary.

 

And since you're the only one who has voted, Sig, I think this will be our new official timeline. 

[Talonair]

Sorry if I've missed them, but has anyone taken into account stalled attacks? i.e. whichever force is advancing being stalled by stiff resistence in certain places?

[simison]

Only the few of them on the galactic scale. Think of this outline as nothing more than a skeleton. There are so many more battles, skirmishes, last stands, and so on one could detail. 

[Talonair]

Fair enough

[simison]

For example, the Cognis versus Abyssii still takes place late Insurrection. The First Solar War is one massive one. The various assaults against the Three Fires sector are other examples.

[bluntblade]

I can't remember requesting Godslayers, but looking at when that offensive happens, it can work thematically, with Hec's thirst for vengeance clouding his judgement. He might over-extend his forces and suffer for that, or delay in securing worlds.

 

Wraithknight Pionus will totally be a thing, just rather late in the game. Along with Andezo's betrayal that should be one of the biggest reversals the Loyalists suffer when Icarion embraces Chaos, as things suddenly turn very bad indeed. A swathe of the Loyalist south collapses because the Scions are scattered and despairing.

[Sigismund229]

While this does mean the Lions numbers will take a hammering on Mexicatii, on the upside this means I finally get to write the scene with Hec leaping out if a stormbird onto Mexicatii's surface I've had in my mind for a while

 

EDIT:

Although, according to my SWAG(scientific wild ass guess) about how many marines the Lions should lose in each major engagement(30,000 on DoR, 2000 on Han, 37,000 on Mexicatii, 73,000 in the Blood Crusade) and how many recruits they get a year(865ish), the Lions should have some 77,000 legionaries left by 050.M31 and the run up to Terra, so actually not too bad. But then I guess my estimates for how many they lost in the Blood Crusade and Mexicatii are on the conservative side. Not sure how that stacks up against the other loyal legions though

Edited September 8, 2017 by Sigismund229

[Talonair]

Just to confirm I've got the right idea, what is the Abyssii vs Cognis thing exactly? Sorry I'm not 100% together at the moment

[simison]

Just to confirm I've got the right idea, what is the Abyssii vs Cognis thing exactly? Sorry I'm not 100% together at the moment

 

It's the campaign of the BotL Mechanicum factions. Late in the Insurrection, the Cognis see an opportunity to place the Abyssii under siege, eager to steal Mortera's secrets. 

 

While this does mean the Lions numbers will take a hammering on Mexicatii, on the upside this means I finally get to write the scene with Hec leaping out if a stormbird onto Mexicatii's surface I've had in my mind for a while

 

EDIT:

Although, according to my SWAG(scientific wild ass guess) about how many marines the Lions should lose in each major engagement(30,000 on DoR, 2000 on Han, 37,000 on Mexicatii, 73,000 in the Blood Crusade) and how many recruits they get a year(865ish), the Lions should have some 77,000 legionaries left by 050.M31 and the run up to Terra, so actually not too bad. But then I guess my estimates for how many they lost in the Blood Crusade and Mexicatii are on the conservative side. Not sure how that stacks up against the other loyal legions though

 

 

I never knew that SWAG could mean that. 

 

Anyway, you've touched upon my one worry, Sig. While I think our war is much more realistic than the canon Horus Heresy, that last year is absolutely brutal. I'm honestly concerned with how low Legions sizes will drop and doubt that any Legion will possess more than 50,000 marines by the end, except perhaps the Suzerainty Legions. 

 

And there are only a few years after the Siege of Terra when the Legions are broken down. I was hoping we would have the bodies so that each Legion (except maybe the Warriors of Peace) would have at least ten Successor Orders. I'm not sure if the math holds up though.

[bluntblade]

If we still play the Death of Madrigal straight, the Suzerainty Legions will suffer a fair bit.

[Talonair]

 

Just to confirm I've got the right idea, what is the Abyssii vs Cognis thing exactly? Sorry I'm not 100% together at the moment

 

It's the campaign of the BotL Mechanicum factions. Late in the Insurrection, the Cognis see an opportunity to place the Abyssii under siege, eager to steal Mortera's secrets.

 

Right, got it. Would it just be Mechanicum involved, because Raktra and I had a rough plan of what's left of the Shepherds fleeing to Nox after the Berserkers go full chaos

[bluntblade]

Whereabouts is Nox? Got a vague plan for Vyrn becoming a Meduson-type figure, so it'll be handy to know where Raktra wants him to be

[Talonair]

Near galactic centre. It's on the map that was made wherever that's ended up

[simison]

It'd wouldn't be hard to work the Shepherds in.

[Talonair]

Yea. The general idea was that the Shepherds flee to Nox, chased by 'serkers (I think led by Riktus), and thanks to the forewarning provided by the Shepherds arriving Nox is able to avoid being overwhelmed by the initial traitor assault

[simison]

Someone was curious, but this will be the last time I will do this. 

 

Set 1: Total galactic travel time is 1 years. Starting point is 031.M31.

 

Travel time for the Traitors to establish Dark Imperium size before First Solar War: 6 months/0.5 years. 

 

Factors working against Traitor expansion:

 

Dune Serpents guerrilla warfare: 1 year

Void Eagle and Predator hit-and-run raids: 2 year

Loyalist Planetary defenses: 1 year 

 

Total time so far: 4.5 years/4 years, 6 months. [035.M31]

 

Logistic penalty reduced from 2 years to 1 year. 

No change in Infrastructure penalty, which is 2 years.

 

Total time: 7.5 years/7 years, 6 months. [038.M31]

 

Logistics preparation for First Solar War, assumed to be 9 months/0.75 years.

 

First Solar War begins in 8.25 years/8 years, 3 months from DoR [039.M31].

 

The CL's Pacificus Campaign. Base Travel time is now 4 months/0.5 years, beginning at the start of 033.M31 to represent the quicker Seg. Solar pacification campaign. 

 

Negative Factors: Chaos travel penalty (x3), 6-month penalty to represent the rebellions. 3-month penalty for Infrastructure, and 2-month penalty for Logistics preparation. 

 

Total time of Pacificus Campaign: 2 years, ending in 035.M31. 4 years until First Solar War. So, only a change of 3 months, really.

 

CL travel to Han. Base travel time: 6 months. Chaos penalty of 3x. Which equals to 18 months/1.5 years. The sacking of Han and the re-organization only equals 1 month. Current year: mid-way through 036.M31.

 

Revision to the first set!

(Oh crap, I messed up the original calculation here. It should have taken the CL 27 months/2 year 4 months to reach Han. No wonder that time table shifted in the other set.) 

(Whereas it was 037.M31, 3 years until First Solar War, in the first set, when it should have been 038 and 4 months. This means there was only a year and 8 months until the First Solar War.)

(Base travel time to Mexicatii: 4 months + Chaos penalty = 12 months/1 year. 039.M31. With only 8 months until the First Solar War and factoring in the 1 year 9 months in travel time from Mexicatii to the Northern Front, this places the CL's earliest arrival at 041.M31 if they just skipped the siege. Therefore, I suggest that we just reduce the Mexicatii siege/purge to 2 years instead of 3 years for the first set.)

 

Base travel time to Mexicatii: 3 months + CP = 9 months/0.75 years. One quarter into 037.M31, 2 exact years until First Solar War, counting the 3 month leftover from earlier.  

 

3 year siege of Mexicatii, places the year at 040.M31, 1 year into the First Solar War. 

 

Base Travel time to the Northern Front: 5 months + Chaos Penalty = 15 months/1 year, 3 months/1.25 years. Plus the 4 floating months from earlier, Hectarion arrives on the Northern Front in 041.M31. 

 

So, the the first defense zone is still breached, the Edict Happens, Pionus is almost mortally-wounded, and Travier's gambit still occurs. The Crimson Lions still arrive late but not too late to sweep in through the North.  The Traitors collapse and are sent fleeing back across the segmentum borders. 

 

041.M31 ends with the First Solar War. 042 sees the Warmaster and Stormlord trying to outmaneuver each other as their Legions recover, but nothing besides skirmishes and a couple of minor battles happen (most without Primarchs involved). This is also the year that Pionus becomes a wraith. This continues until 043, where Icarion becomes desperate enough to listen to Travier, against Koschei's and K'awil's recommendation. (Koschei was actually disturbed by what he saw the Eagle Warriors do on the Northern Front.) Either one of these years might see the Old Blood incident.

 

Cue secret deployments and then the Blood Crusade begins in 044.M31. Since travel time is less of a factor, this only shortens the Blood Crusade from 2 years to 1 year, ending in late 045.M31. 

 

A couple of months later, the corrupted Berserkers reemerge early in 045.M31. Icarion and Travier enact the plan to ascend Morro and the Drowned in the East. What was originally estimated to being 3 years is now only 1 year and 6 months/1.5 years. 

 

Late in 046.M31, the Suzerainty happens, the Godslayers stuck on Zbruch, and K'awil is killed. Icarion sends the Berserkers against the Suzerainty.

 

At the start of 047.M31, Nurgle Godslayers reappear and begin the march to the Suzerainty. Due to taking much less time to travel, the Godslayers are a month or two into the war with the Suzerainty when news arrives of the Eastern Front collapsing.

 

Halfway into 047, the Eastern Traitor Legions making full speed toward the Western Front and will arrive in 9 months, while the Wardens of Light march eastward. 

 

Wardens of Light arrival to Terra. 6 months + Chaos penalty = 18 months/1 year, 6 months. They will arrive early in 049. 

 

The Loyalists and the Suzerainty still make a joint counter-attack as they try to kill Icarion before the Eastern Traitors arrive. Icarion is forced to abandon his HQ in the Yomi system as he and the Western Traitor Legions are forced to retreat toward Madrigal. Despite their attempts, after 3 months, the effort is abandoned with the Eastern Traitor Legions only 5 months out. The Suzerainty and Loyalists fall back to their respective borders and fortify. 

 

Late into 048, the corrupted Traitor Legions begin the Second Solar War, mostly ignoring the Suzerainty. Seeing this, the Suzerainty begin their counter-invasion of the Dark Imperium, aiming for Madrigal. As the Loyalist border defenses collapse early 049, the Wardens of Light jump in to save the day. 

 

The rest of 049 sees the start of the twin sieges before the cataclysmic ending happens three days into 050.

 

So, that almost shaves off a whole decade compared to my first calculations this month. In total, the war lasts 19 years, if we assume it only takes 1 year to cross the galaxy. 

[bluntblade]

Either this or 24 works for me. Cheers Sim

[Chief Captain Redd]

I like it; feels more desperate this way, less hand sitting than before.

[MikhalLeNoir]

But it also makes the scale smaller. If it takes more time to reach a point, the whole thing is far bigger in scale. Just compare season 7 to season 1 to 5 in game of thrones and you know what I mean

[bluntblade]

I'd say that's more a matter of budget. The Insurrection starts with colossal battles (and Blackwater was hindered by a small budget anyway). We're still dealing in over two and a half times the duration of the Heresy, a necessarily longer Scouring and therefore more bloodshed.