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Games Workshop: Best Performing Stock on the London Market


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#1
m0nolith

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"Following on from the announcement made in October, Games Workshop Group PLC announces a half year trading update for the six months to 26 November 2017. Preliminary estimates indicate sales of c. £109 million in the first six months of 2017/18 and an operating profit of c. £38 million for the period.

Over the first half we have seen sales and profit growth in all channels in constant currency terms with the momentum continuing throughout period. These results are in line with expectations for the year ending 3 June 2018 although the Board is aware that it is still early in the 2017/18 financial year.

We expect to announce our half-yearly report for the six months to 26 November 2017 on 9 January 2018."

 

"The group’s shares have soard 174.4 per cent since the end of last year, making Games Workshop by far the best-performing stock on the FTSE All-Share index, according to FactSet data."

 

Screen-Shot-2017-12-05-at-20.11.22-e1512

 

 


Edited by m0nolith, 06 December 2017 - 03:08 AM.

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#2
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For context how well do they normally do in comparison?
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#3
Not 1 Step Backwards

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Easier to show than tell.  GW share price flat for basically a decade...because sales have just been flat.  In fact, sales were a bit negative because it couldn't even keep up with inflation and back then they had to do some funky currency-based maths to make it look like it's been flat when it actually dipped.  I been reading their annual reports from the last decade, and it has been a turnaround.

 

The turnaround started around 1.5 years ago, roughly around the Season of War.  Then Brexit vote then 8th ed happened.  GW, as a British-based company that mostly exports to Europe and North America, it looks to be in a safer position than most of its peers.  So it is really doing well in a time when everyone else looks bad, is making GW look really good.

 

You guys can see my analysis from about...a year ago?  I told you GW was a stock to buy.  I didn't fully understand the Brexit referendum impact but even then it was a good Buy.  Now, I suggest Hold.  I think the price is a little inflated now, imma wait for things to cool off or settle.

 

Edit - just so you guys know I'm not making stuff up, my actual post from January this yearhttp://www.bolterand...m-gw/?p=4628374

 

 

 

1. More Gathering Storm books, 1 now, 1 in March, 1 in May, to ramp up to the event

2. The release of 8th ed 40k, just as AoS did with the General's Handbook in May

3. Summer event like Season of War with the Gathering Storms, where the results Forge A Narrative

4. Profit, like what we saw in the May to Nov 2016 financial report, but much higher due to 40k

 

And speaking of buying, recommendation for stock GAW Games Workshop Group PLC: BUY.

 

 

Of course, I was wrong...Gathering Storm came much faster and 8th ed came out in June, not May (btw GW fiscal year starts in June), where instead there was a month-long ramp-up with daily articles on the new edition on Warhammer Community.  Keep in mind this was back when 8th was a rumour along with plastic Sisters of Battle.

 

At the time I sounded like an overly optimistic crazyman, but a few of you dared to agree with me, and it turned out we were all pretty much correct.

 

My point - GW's share price increasing...not surprising.  Increasing by 170+%, that seems a little bit too much.  We'll see in 6-month results in Jan.


Edited by Not 1 Step Backwards, 06 December 2017 - 12:16 PM.

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#4
m0nolith

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Hear that sound?

That's the sound of Tom Kirby not saying a damn thing.


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#5
Closet Skeleton

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I assume that 2005 drop off is Lord of the Rings related?



#6
Leif Bearclaw

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The turnaround started around 1.5 years ago, roughly around the Season of War.  Then Brexit then 8th ed happened.  GW, as a British-based company that mostly exports to Europe and North America, it looks to be in a safer position than most of its peers.  So it is really doing well in a time when everyone else looks bad, is making GW look really good.

 

Slight point of pedantry. Brexit didn't happen last year, a referendum did (and the subsequent crashing of the pound is the good thing for GW), then article 50 this year. Actual 'Brexit' (God, that's always been a stupid name) isn't due until 2019.


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#7
chapter master 454

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good to see GW on the up and up for once. Wonder how much was the loss in value of the pound factored in along with 8th edition.

Hopefully it continues upwards for GW in terms of health. Would suck to lose them.


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#8
sfPanzer

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Too bad that Kirby still profits from it. He's not gone, he's just not running the show anymore. ^^


Disclaimer:

If my posts appear rude to you, I apologize. It's not meant to be rude in any way, it's just the way folks are in my country. It's really more about being direct than being rude. I know how it's perceived in the english speaking community and I already try to tone it down but I barely notice when it's too much since it's normal for me.

 

So yeah, I'm really not rude it's basically just cultural differences that act against me here. Again, I apologize.

 

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#9
Frater Cornelius

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Too bad that Kirby still profits from it. He's not gone, he's just not running the show anymore. ^^


We shouldn’t be vindictive. Instead, rejoice that things turned for the better ;)
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#10
sfPanzer

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Too bad that Kirby still profits from it. He's not gone, he's just not running the show anymore. ^^


We shouldn’t be vindictive. Instead, rejoice that things turned for the better msn-wink.gif

 

Why can't I be both?! :D


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Disclaimer:

If my posts appear rude to you, I apologize. It's not meant to be rude in any way, it's just the way folks are in my country. It's really more about being direct than being rude. I know how it's perceived in the english speaking community and I already try to tone it down but I barely notice when it's too much since it's normal for me.

 

So yeah, I'm really not rude it's basically just cultural differences that act against me here. Again, I apologize.

 

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#11
Vel'Cona

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Good for them!  Hopefully this huge turnaround has convinced GW that the things they're doing now are MUCH better than what they were doing in the past.  Companies like EA could learn a thing or two from GW  :D


Losing 'hope' after 10k years just because of a big warp storm? Doesn't sound like my Blood Angels.

Never had hope to begin with; they had duty, and that was enough.

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#12
Not 1 Step Backwards

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I assume that 2005 drop off is Lord of the Rings related?

 

 

Ya pretty much.  Tom Kirby's own words from 2007 annual report:

 

 

 

Lord of the Rings product sales have declined faster than we anticipated after the unsustainable levels of the last two years, but we still see them contributing to our sales and expect them to do so far into the future.

 

 

Also thank you for this very polite but utterly important correction:

 

 

 


The turnaround started around 1.5 years ago, roughly around the Season of War.  Then Brexit then 8th ed happened.  GW, as a British-based company that mostly exports to Europe and North America, it looks to be in a safer position than most of its peers.  So it is really doing well in a time when everyone else looks bad, is making GW look really good.

 

Slight point of pedantry. Brexit didn't happen last year, a referendum did (and the subsequent crashing of the pound is the good thing for GW), then article 50 this year. Actual 'Brexit' (God, that's always been a stupid name) isn't due until 2019.

 

 

 

Not pedantic, it's a good correction.  This is SO relevant in addition to being true.  The Brexit referendum had an effect on currency which partly inflated GW's revenue at constant currency, thus value, thus share price.  But that won't be the whole effect.

 

To compare...and it's hard to because there's been nothing like it...remember that 1-month-long-every-day-there-was-news-about-8th-before-8th-came-out and we were all speculating and looking at our armies?  We all made crazy predictions.  I compare those things because every day I'm getting more news on the Brexit negotiations?  Talks?  Debates?  I don't even know what to call them, but it's constantly in my news feeds, and everyone is talking about it.  All these supposed experts, just take everything they say with a grain of salt because they might just be as unreliable as we were talking about 8th ed before it came out.

 

And I think a lot of the movement in the market is based on this time when everyone's talking but no one knows anything.

 

To put it into perspective, BitCoin went up 1000% (one thousand) percent.  Everyone's gone loco imho.

 

The real proof in the pudding as it relates to this topic of GW share price will come mid-January, when GW usually releases its 6-month report.  I've already got 2 questions in mind:

 

1. If June-Dec 2016 was driven by AoS imho, how much greater will June-Dec 2017 be as that was driven by 8th ed 40k?

 

2. Has GW invested in new assets, like production facilities?  I heard about problems in Nottingham's powergrid and so forth, which is fair, but if I may say something as crazy and otherworldy as my predictions back in January this year, there's gotta be some place that has electricity to make minis.  This is the 21st century, not the 19th.  The CEO is mindful of maintaining their profit margins, and new factories are a cost and so are trained staff, but there's gotta be a way.

 

That's all way by saying, we'll see something real in mid-January, so we should stay tuned.



#13
Marshal Rohr

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Are they warning investors to be mindful of the inevitable collapse in value over the next few years?

#14
the jeske

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Really nice that 8th sells well for GW. at least I do hope, that this is the w40k sales, that are making them generate more money and not some brexit influencing the money market stuff. Now I know this is naive and stuff, but I like to think that GW when it gets more money and more time will hire people that at least write more consistent rules, they don't even have to be better just get the wording right for one edition.

 

Removed removed content in quote.


Edited by Excessus, 07 December 2017 - 11:12 AM.

"Felix wondered how Calgar might feel about the primach's unilateral altering of the Codex Astartes. The captain could not help but feel that, in his drive for victory and efficiency, Guilliman had been careless with the feelings of his existing sons. Increasingly, Guilliman looked to the Primaris Space Marines as his first solution. He made no attempt to hide the fact that the days of the older space marines were numbered."


#15
depthcharge12

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Hey N1SB, I’m wondering if you could do me a big favor and run the current, quick, and TIE ratios again. Last we spoke on this, GW was becoming more and more liquid which could’ve indicated how they were going to fund all of these 8th edition releases.

I’d like a particular focus on the inventory to see if they've managed to have some better turnover then letting it sit in warehouses.
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#16
Polak

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2. Has GW invested in new assets, like production facilities?  I heard about problems in Nottingham's powergrid and so forth, which is fair, but if I may say something as crazy and otherworldy as my predictions back in January this year, there's gotta be some place that has electricity to make minis.  This is the 21st century, not the 19th.  The CEO is mindful of maintaining their profit margins, and new factories are a cost and so are trained staff, but there's gotta be a way.

 

 

 

There are new solar panels on the roofs of the GW buildings....so I guess that's a first step into the right direction, not to mention it's GREEN energy :D


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#17
Excessus

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Right guys, stay on target. No funny business...

 

Some posts have been purged.


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#18
Lord Marshal

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Worth noting that GW's massive upswing occurred as soon as the Brexit vote happened and the value of the pound nosedived. In other words, foreign buyers - of a product that is VERY expensive - have been and are stocking up whilst they can. Sure, there's absolutely an element of their recent PR spins bringing so many people back, but the timing likely isn't a coincidence. Once a Brexit deal/it actually occurs comes around it's going to be very interesting to see how steady the ship holds. 


Edited by Lord Marshal, 06 December 2017 - 03:30 PM.

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#19
Marshal Rohr

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Worth noting that GW's massive upswing occurred as soon as the Brexit vote happened and the value of the pound nosedived. In other words, foreign buyers - of a product that is VERY expensive - have been and are stocking up whilst they can. Sure, there's absolutely an element of their recent PR spins bringing so many people back, but the timing likely isn't a coincidence. Once a Brexit deal/it actually occurs comes around it's going to be very interesting to see how steady the ship holds. 

 

This is the inevitable catalyst for the bubble bursting and the stock returning to historical values. The geopolitical situation is so volatile right now.


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#20
LordValrak

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More invest = more Primaris? :P

I hope so...


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#21
Lord Marshal

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More invest = more Primaris? tongue.png

I hope so...

 

Game is in desperate need of investing in anything that's not loyalist Space Marines, or even Imperials.


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#22
Shockmaster

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I can only talk from local experience but 8th plus the return of games like Blood Bowl, Warhammer Quest, Necromunda etc have got a lot of middle aged former players  who stopped playing in the late 90s/early 00s back in to the GW hobby, many of which seem to have a lot of spare cash and are looking to make up for their younger years when they could not buy everything they wanted, they even buy all their stuff direct from the local GW store rather then through discount sites like I use.

 

GW are on to a winner if they keep riding this wave of nostalgia while still appealing and making the games accessible to new players. 


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#23
Not 1 Step Backwards

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I can only talk from local experience but 8th plus the return of games like Blood Bowl, Warhammer Quest, Necromunda etc have got a lot of middle aged former players  who stopped playing in the late 90s/early 00s back in to the GW hobby, many of which seem to have a lot of spare cash and are looking to make up for their younger years when they could not buy everything they wanted, they even buy all their stuff direct from the local GW store rather then through discount sites like I use.

 

GW are on to a winner if they keep riding this wave of nostalgia while still appealing and making the games accessible to new players. 

 

Ya new CEO has a term for this, to illustrate how he's really thinking about it.  In addition to existing players and new players, he has dubbed a category: lapsed players.

 

It's as you say, those who played during GW's heyday, but left The Hobby since.  I was a lapsed player before he dubbed me such, but it's true, so many of us are.

 

And it's not just nostalgia.  It's that I think there are possibly more players that've left The Hobby than active players.  It might be the biggest customer segment.

 

I think the next game is Talisman, not sure why GW hasn't been mentioning it yet.  I might be misremembering.


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#24
Marshal Rohr

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I can only talk from local experience but 8th plus the return of games like Blood Bowl, Warhammer Quest, Necromunda etc have got a lot of middle aged former players  who stopped playing in the late 90s/early 00s back in to the GW hobby, many of which seem to have a lot of spare cash and are looking to make up for their younger years when they could not buy everything they wanted, they even buy all their stuff direct from the local GW store rather then through discount sites like I use.

 

GW are on to a winner if they keep riding this wave of nostalgia while still appealing and making the games accessible to new players. 

 

Ya new CEO has a term for this, to illustrate how he's really thinking about it.  In addition to existing players and new players, he has dubbed a category: lapsed players.

 

It's as you say, those who played during GW's heyday, but left The Hobby since.  I was a lapsed player before he dubbed me such, but it's true, so many of us are.

 

And it's not just nostalgia.  It's that I think there are possibly more players that've left The Hobby than active players.  It might be the biggest customer segment.

 

I think the next game is Talisman, not sure why GW hasn't been mentioning it yet.  I might be misremembering.

 

 

That is interesting. I think the big community survey might've been an attempt to test the waters about what would bring the lapsed players back. 


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#25
the jeske

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What was wrong with my post? I said am happy for GW doing good, and that I hope this is linked to better sales and not money fluctuation. And that ones one view on the community could be warped by what is happening localy, and that it is good to check foreign forums to avoid that. And that my community is made out of old players coming back, and one new dude. That is practicly the same everyone else is writing here.


"Felix wondered how Calgar might feel about the primach's unilateral altering of the Codex Astartes. The captain could not help but feel that, in his drive for victory and efficiency, Guilliman had been careless with the feelings of his existing sons. Increasingly, Guilliman looked to the Primaris Space Marines as his first solution. He made no attempt to hide the fact that the days of the older space marines were numbered."





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