I assume that 2005 drop off is Lord of the Rings related?
Ya pretty much. Tom Kirby's own words from 2007 annual report:
Lord of the Rings product sales have declined faster than we anticipated after the unsustainable levels of the last two years, but we still see them contributing to our sales and expect them to do so far into the future.
Also thank you for this very polite but utterly important correction:
The turnaround started around 1.5 years ago, roughly around the Season of War. Then Brexit then 8th ed happened. GW, as a British-based company that mostly exports to Europe and North America, it looks to be in a safer position than most of its peers. So it is really doing well in a time when everyone else looks bad, is making GW look really good.
Slight point of pedantry. Brexit didn't happen last year, a referendum did (and the subsequent crashing of the pound is the good thing for GW), then article 50 this year. Actual 'Brexit' (God, that's always been a stupid name) isn't due until 2019.
Not pedantic, it's a good correction. This is SO relevant in addition to being true. The Brexit referendum had an effect on currency which partly inflated GW's revenue at constant currency, thus value, thus share price. But that won't be the whole effect.
To compare...and it's hard to because there's been nothing like it...remember that 1-month-long-every-day-there-was-news-about-8th-before-8th-came-out and we were all speculating and looking at our armies? We all made crazy predictions. I compare those things because every day I'm getting more news on the Brexit negotiations? Talks? Debates? I don't even know what to call them, but it's constantly in my news feeds, and everyone is talking about it. All these supposed experts, just take everything they say with a grain of salt because they might just be as unreliable as we were talking about 8th ed before it came out.
And I think a lot of the movement in the market is based on this time when everyone's talking but no one knows anything.
To put it into perspective, BitCoin went up 1000% (one thousand) percent. Everyone's gone loco imho.
The real proof in the pudding as it relates to this topic of GW share price will come mid-January, when GW usually releases its 6-month report. I've already got 2 questions in mind:
1. If June-Dec 2016 was driven by AoS imho, how much greater will June-Dec 2017 be as that was driven by 8th ed 40k?
2. Has GW invested in new assets, like production facilities? I heard about problems in Nottingham's powergrid and so forth, which is fair, but if I may say something as crazy and otherworldy as my predictions back in January this year, there's gotta be some place that has electricity to make minis. This is the 21st century, not the 19th. The CEO is mindful of maintaining their profit margins, and new factories are a cost and so are trained staff, but there's gotta be a way.
That's all way by saying, we'll see something real in mid-January, so we should stay tuned.