I dislike the 3++ Analysis not that is wrong, but as the author noted and demonstrated point for point Space Marines with Bolter are worse than a Gaurd with a Lasgun.
What is relavent is effective table space. 3 30 Man Gaurdsman Squads take up an effective 52” (assuming that they are not densely packed like sardines and each model has an half an inch of space + base. Squads are vaguely 2 by 5. So 8 by 6.5). A ten man marine squad in contrast has 27” space (1.5” from base and about 0.5 of personal base alotted, 3 by 9)
The are of a table is 6 by 4. During deployment you have assuming standard 6 by 1. Or 864”, 3 Marine Squads take up just over one 10th of your table space or 81”. 9 Gaurdsman Squads take up 468, well over half of your allotted deployment space.
In others words. A Gaurdsman force will never be able to bring to bear all it’s units effectively down upon a single target. The MEQ
Units can choose the point of engagement. In addition to the issue of just footprint. Transportation. 3 Rhinos or Drop Pods run 210-240 Points. (And Rhinos put out 8 Bolters Shots in Rapid + 1 Krak Shot Once Game, making a bit worse than a 5 Man MeQ
with missile (10 Points Cheaper for making the noodle melee into a glorified staring melee, and the heavy weapon becoming one shot).
Enabling faster redeployment and engagement times compared to the Squads of Gaurdsman Equivalent. (Who if they bought transports to do so, the cost would balloon the cost of the units compared to Tacticals). This all boils back to what Marines all, an issue the GK’s Army has for example is this but only more exaggerated. Marines are a surgical strike force not an attrition one.
If we play the long game, we’ll lose. Instead our focus is force an engagement, where we can be the 300 Spartans. (Through it be should be noted, the 300 Spartans were actually 300 Spartans + several thousands of allied Greeks. The elite force needed body count to survive/for a chance of victory).
The extension of this issue, is while trying to deploy and engage in a manner to force battle on a small front. Is we need the survive past the round one engagement. 5 Man MSU, Double Special while excellent damage per point, lacks bodies needed. If charged by 10 Gaurdsman, they won’t be able to effectively win combat. While a ten men could stay in combat and win. Pistols + Melee attacks over 1.5 turns (or two rounds of combat and one round of shooting) will kill a gaurd squad. An MSU Squad once in combat, will take 2 games rounds and a shooting phase to kill the same unit. (And giving the Gaurdsman two turns to attack and throw more units).
The addition of of the heavy is equivalent is to 1 to 1.5 specials (Plas in particular, HvyBolter 3 > 2 > 1.32 > 0.66, LasCannon 1 > 0.66 > 0.55 > 0.46). 2 PlasGuns (2 > 1.32 then 1.1 or 0.88. Post saves, 0.9 or 0.73. 1 Plasma is 0.45 to 0.38). In the case of heavy Bolters about a third or eighth worse. The Lascannon is about the same damage when compare to overcharge (1.575 damage vs 1.8) Plasma Guns.
So your not losing that much by running a ten men over two five men, save better use of command points and more effective melee engagement. All this returns to my basic point with Marines. Marines should not be played like we are an attrition style force. Some Marines armies be can be. Black Templars and Deathgaurd, for example are Power Armored Armies that are built on that basic premise.
Black Templars having FauxBoy Squads, in the form of Crusader Squads (when running a Tide army), allow ablative wounds. While Deathgaurd have in 8th Edition, army wide relentless and their longer weaponry are unavailable on their troop squads, and they have their T5 and FNP
Both are forces that want their troops units in the midst of things and have the tools to fight the long fight. Grey Hunters in contrast are similar to Crusader and Plague Marines, but lack squad durability.
Which brings us back the original point; Marines are weak per point spent in comparison to Chaff Units and Armies with raw bodies. The difference is that Marines can better bring to bear their weapons on a concentrated platform then a gaurd army could.
That is where 3++ Analysis falls apart