-1 to hit Vs 5+++

[STTAB]

I've been playing around on https://www.mathhammer8thed.com

 

I'm building towards a fast army of Ravenwing and Blood Angels. Not a super competitive build but fun fast and tricky. I intend to start plasma inceptors on the board but I'm struggling to figure out if I'm better off making them BA or DA. Both have distinct advantages. I'm using the Darkshroud for the -1 to hit and the BA relic banner for 5++ but I don't know which will make them more survivable? I have a feeling that the math hammer site is applying modifiers before rerolls instead of after but I'm not clever enough to to figure out the maths for myself. Anyone here had a play with the mathammer site or knows which would make inceptors more survivable?

[chapter master 454]

By maths the difference is small but I suppose I can answer your question from what I can mathhammer out, others may prove to have better answers but according to my maths (which is my own so if wrong correct me) the 5+++ (I assume means FNP rolls) gives better durability across the board from what I can see. 

 

Taking a boltgun shot to both targets I came back with a boltgun doing the following:

 

0.05 wounds to the -1 to hit target

0.02 wounds for the 5+++ target

 

This only increases vs. multi-damage weapons. So theoretically the 5+++ gives better durability by the seems.

 

Something fun you to know, as I have now memorised is that the 5 numbers you multiple with to determine results are 0.17 for 1 in 6 (1/6), 0.33 for 1 in 3 (1/3), 0.5 for 1 in 2 (1/2), 0.67 for 2 in 3 (2/3) and 0.83 for 5 in 6 (5/6). The big thing to remember when doing the maths is to keep your perspective the same throughout so if you start from the perspective of the shooting model, always maths according to his success (so you use the odds of him hitting, then him wounding BUT you then use the odds of the target failing the save).

 

And to be honest, just paint them whichever looks more awesome. To be honest, I would tell you to go with the Dark Angels scheme for plasma interceptors, plasma is more their thing and works that way. Never let numbers dictate you choice of paint scheme! NEVER

[WarriorFish]

The BA relic banner is a FNP style bonus yes (usually shortened to 5+++, where 5++ would be an invulnerable save of a 5 up). There's auto-hit weapons to consider, does the -1 apply to close combat? Assuming not the extra save would be better I think as that's two chances are avoiding damage (assuming you get a first, which you usually do). That goes a long way, and so long as he's around is always there whereas a -1 to hit could be negated by a Stratagem, reduced by auras or just plain ignored should your opponent roll well.

 

As 454 said I wouldn't let some rules dictate your choice of chapter - if you want to paint Dark Angels for example then that's your choice already made

[BluejayJunior]

I think it also depends on how you play them, even though the banner is mathematically the better option. The banner only affects models in 6", not units, so all 3 inceptors need to positioned around a the ancient. So they may end up being more stationary than you might normally play them. The banner would also give you the chance to shoot again if they die (including due to an overcharge). 

But as Dark Angels around the Darkshroud you could play them more mobile with the higher movements of both units. Allowing you to have a fast moving, mobile force separate from the more survivable and slightly slower firebase around the banner. 

[Plasmablasts]

One thought in favour of the -1 to hit is that it discourages super-charging of plasma, if you face a lot of that.

[STTAB]

Gentlemen, thanks for the replies.

 

The 5++ looks better for survivability

 

Big picture is a difficult decision as DA have the +1 damage stratagem but BA have upon wings of fire for better turn 1 reach and could get re-roll 1s to hit from a librarian dread using wings of sangunius and wisdom of he ancients or chapter master 454's favourite, the Rhino Primaris for +1 to hit (which I have).

[STTAB]

With regards to painting, I've made up my own marine colour scheme, which is handy as I'm more interested in play style for the most part and the big FAQ scuppered my plans. My marine force is inquisition themed so I'll repaint some pauldrons to represent different detachments.

[Aothaine]

Something else to consider is that the -1 to hit can prevent a weapon that would insta-gib a marine. It is all good to run the tests with a static number but what I would look at is the ability to reduce your opponent's chance to hit you by 16.6%. 

 

So... 

 

Hitting on 2+ is a 83% chance to hit. But you toss the -1 on there and they have a 66.4% chance to hit. 

Hitting on 3+ is a 66.4% chance to hit. But you toss the -1 on there and they have a 49.8% chance to hit. 

etc...

 

Removing the hits at the shooting phase reduces your opponent's opportunity to fail wound rolls. So you also need to consider that. Also you need to consider that FNP rolls are taken on every wound and some weapons cause multiple wounds. So if you have a weapon shooting you that hit and causes more than one wound, in this example your models have 2 wounds each, there is the potential for the 5+++ save to be worse than having your opponent lose the possible extra hits. 

 

Something else you should really consider though is the effectiveness of the unit. Do you want it to hit harder or have more mobility?

 

Using numbers to justify if you should take or not take a unit can be a dangerous decision. Tread carefully.

[Kallas]

-1 to Hit vs 5+FNP (assuming basic MEQ):

 

vs BS3+ Bolter (4/0/1)

Base: 1*0.66*0.5*0.33= 0.11fs (failed saves)

-1: 1*0.5*0.5*0.33= 0.083fs

5+: 1*0.66*0.5*0.33*0.66= 0.072fs

 

vs BS4+ Lasgun (3/0/1)

Base: 0.055fs

-1: 0.036fs

5+: 0.036fs

Interestingly equal improvement from each. I believe that this is because it's a statistical drop in accuracy of a BS4+ shot of 33%, and a 5+FNP is also a flat 33% chance. Presumably this will be different when multi-damage weaponry becomes a factor.

 

vs Plasma, regular (7/-3/1)

Base: 3+, 0.36fs; 4+, 0.275fs

-1: 3+, 0.275fs; 4+, 0.18fs

5+: 3+, 0.239fs; 4+, 0.18fs

 

vs Plasma, supercharged (8/-3/2)

Base: 3+, 0.458fs; 4+, 0.347fs

-1: 3+, 0.347fs; 0.229fs

5+: 3+, 0.458fs, 0.199f2FNP; 4+, 0.347fs, 0.15f2FNP

(*Method for checking FNP vs 2D: 1*0.66/0.5*0.833*0.833*0.66*0.66)

So FNP is definitely more valuable vs multi-damage weaponry on a raw statistical front, and it becomes better when multi-wound models (such as Sanguinary Guard) are factored in.

 

Not an exhaustive list, but should be a general indication of some common weapons. 5+FNP seems to want generally superior though.

 

 

 

*I'm not 100% sure that my method is correct, so if someone else can see a better method, please enlighten me/us!

[M.Redbeard]

Doing the math myself the results I have are:

 

Depends on the BS of your enemy. If my math was right ofr BS of 5 or 6 the -1 to hit saves more, on 4 it is the same and on 2 or 3 the 5 FnP is better. Few armies have Ork shooting, so in avergar the FnP will do more for you, and of course it is more obvious the benefit of a tactic the more damage or the more atracks your tank with it (since the effect is just multuplying the result usually). So of you want just simple go for the FnP.

 

But this is disregarding additional effects the -1. If you are fighting Eldar, the -1 will end up being more useful, for it negates the Blade of Storms extra AP. Same with Necrons or Mechanicum. It will also affect CSM and SM since plasma is very reliable way of killing stuff, specially Primaris, and they will far more likely Get Hot with the Darkshroud, mlre so if you add Aversion or they move with Heavy weapons. You can add T'au to the list of armies affected since their Drones will suffer against the -1.

 

On the other hand if you expect to see Dark Reapers the FnP is far better. Custodes will also see less of an impact in theor shooting since they are an army woth 2+ shooting, giving the less possible benefit for the -1. Or against a Melee army since the DA debuff is only for shooting while the FnP is an all rounder.

 

So, I would say for your Amgels of Death what do you prefer? A reliable method to avoid wounds or a more situational biff that might help against specific weapons and abilities?

[STTAB]

Thanks for the brain power. The relic banner seems the better choice overall. The Dark Shroud is nasty if you only present flyers to be shot at turn 1 and tuck it behind LOS.

 

The final(ish) version of the list is infantry saturation and charachter vehichles (Libby dread, Talon master and Sammy on sableclaw) with sanguinary guard being protected by the relic banner turn 1 and the plasma inceptors going DA and starting in reserves.

 

Turn 1, if I don't go first, the opponent has the option of shooting at 6 scout squads (3,DA, 3 BA) or the sanguinary guard with the 5+++ with 3 toughish vehichle characters being screened.

[Claws and Effect]

On 1 wound models against multiple damage weapons, the -1 is better.

 

If the shot misses in the first place you don't have to hope for 5s to come up on all of multiple rolls.

 

My wife uses Catalyst on her Nids. To counter that I aim weapons that deal more than one damage at that unit. If it deals 3 or more damage with each wound scored Catalyst will almost never save them.