State of Forge World

[SickSix]

I have been thinking, with the international price hike and discontinuing of products from Forge World, that perhaps they are intentionally shrinking their customer base.

 

I refuse to believe FW and GW execs were too stupid to realize their 30-40% price hike on international customers wouldn't shrink their customer base. And maybe it's intentional becuase FW just got cheaper for the home crowd.

 

Then we were told their stocks were full of stuff that wasn't moving. So perhaps this is all actually planned to return FW to a 'cottage'/'boutique' business that is much easier to handle and (even more) low volume high profit. Perhaps GW and/or FW thought they grew too fast and it was becoming unwieldy.

 

Alan Bligh has passed and with it seems so has FW's dedication to the heresy. Or at least the train lost its conductor. We know he Heresy team is smaller and has basically lost it's billing as the top product line. Specialists games seems too be the new cash cow.

 

Saying all that and thinking my theory makes sense, all flies out the window when I realize they are opening a FW base in the US. Why do that if you want return FW to its cottage days. Becuase in the face of the ludicrous new prices for US customers that (warehouse) seems like a really foolish investment.

 

What do you think?

[Tyriks]

I think people here overestimate the damage the price changes will do to sales. I only recently made my first FW purchase, but even with the price changes I know I'll buy again. Everyone I know who plays feels the same or wasn't going to buy from FW anyway.

[ERJAK]

It's not about people who buy tons of forgeworld suddenly stopping cold turkey or about people who never buy forgeworld being louder about it, it's not even about the outrage, it's about basic economics.

 

People who bought lots of forgeworld before are likely still going to be buying lots of forgeworld, just less than they were. People who were on the fence about buying forgeworld will be less likely to purchase anything. 40k players who buy a handful of forgeworld things per year will be buying less. People will start new armies less frequently as the cost becomes prohibitive(especially if the calth/prospero boxes disappear). You'll also see people pushing planned purchases off hoping for a reversal or until they can figure out a way to buy from England and avoid the price hike.

 

You'll also see a rise in popularity/presence of recasters. There's even been more rumblings about banning forgeworld at tournaments than there has been in a while(though that is anecdotal).

 

They WILL lose a significant amount of demand as a result of the price increase, forgeworld does not have totally inelastic demand. The question becomes, will they lose enough demand to create a loss given the higher degree of per-unit revenue? I would wager yes, imho, there's no way forgeworlds was priced below their equilibrium point before this.

[Leif Bearclaw]

Thing is though, maybe FW knows something we don't. FW has been anomalously cheap overseas for the last few years thanks to the weak pound. This 'should' be good for exports, as they become cheaper and people buy more. But what if that isn't what FW has seen? If they've not seen a spike in sales despite an effective 20% price cut (for the US, as an example) what is the sensible inference? Them concluding that their product is sufficiently inelastic that the market will bear a fixed exchange rate higher than the current one doesn't seem implausible. Is it also possible that with them expanding their operations stateside they'll be dealing in dollars more (rents, staff, US taxes etc.)? So they'll want more income in dollars, and keeping to the bad exchange rate would then hurt revenues.

 

I don't see any reason why this won't blow over. It's still nowhere near as bad as the Finecast debacle. A blanket 50% price rise while shifting to a cheaper material (and producing worse quality models), and yet Finecast still sold, and GW survived (and have now moved towards even higher prices for monopose plastic characters).

[Lord Marshal]

Between FW apparently being blindsided by the announcement of 8th, being told by GW to pretty much rewrite Fires from the ground up and GW telling them to LCTB in order to free up warehouse space, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if Games Workshop are trying to sink them deliberately.

 

They get to ride on the wave of "B-BUT THIS IS THE NEW GAMES WORKSHOP, THEY CAN DO NO WRONG!" meanwhile letting Forge World - as if it were a fully independent entity - take the flak for those behind-the-scenes decisions, mostly being held up by those in the community who actively want Forge World to sink because they didn't move Heresy to 8th.

 

*Adjusts tinfoil hat*

[jeffersonian000]

It’s been known for a while now that FW is in the process of purchasing a plastic injection system, just like the 3 GW already own. FW has stated during one of their weekenders that many of their Infantry lines are migrating to plastic. It’s also a well known practice of FW to keep a limited number of product lines available at any one time.

 

And just to point out, the Adaptus Titanicus set is an all plastic FW set, which means they did indeed buy that plastic injection system.

 

As price hikes, get use to it. The US has a economic moron in office that thinks tariffs are a way to generate revenue, which has only caused prices to increase on common goods everywhere. GW is probably taking advantage of this mess to price shock foreign markets.

 

SJ

[SickSix]

I think people here overestimate the damage the price changes will do to sales. I only recently made my first FW purchase, but even with the price changes I know I'll buy again. Everyone I know who plays feels the same or wasn't going to buy from FW anyway.

No, I think you are severely underestimating the possible long term damage. I have watched a couple youtube videos and listened to one major 30k podcast. You have people that have spent on the 5 digit range on multiple or large FW only 30k armies swearing off buying anything else from FW. You realise that for the entire continent of Australia that FW was somethings cheaper than mainline GW? Well I best there sales there are going to drop fairly close to zero.

 

FW was always hard to justify for me as it was. Now it's very easy to say 'Nope'.

[SoulessGod]

I can say that there is a major Australian based 30k podcast thst is boycotting FW as we speak and actively suggesting others should do so. There are also facebook groups being created to give people 3rd party options some of which perhaps are questionable in their legality.

[Wargamer]

I can say that there is a major Australian based 30k podcast thst is boycotting FW as we speak and actively suggesting others should do so. There are also facebook groups being created to give people 3rd party options some of which perhaps are questionable in their legality.

 

This. When the big voices in your community are actively telling people to A: not give you money and B: go pirate your stuff if they can't go without, you have a problem.

[Stofficus]

it's like we've come full circle - GW proper has decided to go the route of "Hobby with a human face," meanwhile FW is the metaphorical equivalent of the T-62s rolling into Prague. 

I used to be an outspoken supporter of FW for years, with their clear love for the setting, passion projects, and the initial huge amazing project that was the Horus Heresy. But then GW started to reign in its excesses, communicating and otherwise emulating a lot of the successes FW had relied on, while FW shut down communication, started cutting products and stopped supporting anything post release. 

 

I have no idea where they're going, but it's not anywhere I have any intent to follow. 

[Elzender]

It’s been known for a while now that FW is in the process of purchasing a plastic injection system, just like the 3 GW already own. FW has stated during one of their weekenders that many of their Infantry lines are migrating to plastic. It’s also a well known practice of FW to keep a limited number of product lines available at any one time.

 

And just to point out, the Adaptus Titanicus set is an all plastic FW set, which means they did indeed buy that plastic injection system.

 

As price hikes, get use to it. The US has a economic moron in office that thinks tariffs are a way to generate revenue, which has only caused prices to increase on common goods everywhere. GW is probably taking advantage of this mess to price shock foreign markets.

 

SJ

 

Uhh, first news on that topic for me, I read rumours like this but they were talking about GW in general wanting to increase its production capacity, not specifically FW. If that is true, I hope they bring back mark II, at the very least, and fingers crossed for new upgrade sets, and maybe even some of the vehicles adapted to plastic (and cheaper as a result?).

 

I'm not sure if the Adeptus titanicus range is proof enough, though, as it may be under the wing of Specialist Games, which has had previous releases in plastic. Nonetheless, fingers crossed that something good comes out of this in the end.

[Sete]

Between FW apparently being blindsided by the announcement of 8th, being told by GW to pretty much rewrite Fires from the ground up and GW telling them to LCTB in order to free up warehouse space, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if Games Workshop are trying to sink them deliberately.

 

They get to ride on the wave of "B-BUT THIS IS THE NEW GAMES WORKSHOP, THEY CAN DO NO WRONG!" meanwhile letting Forge World - as if it were a fully independent entity - take the flak for those behind-the-scenes decisions, mostly being held up by those in the community who actively want Forge World to sink because they didn't move Heresy to 8th.

 

*Adjusts tinfoil hat*

Tin foil hats actually boost receptivity of government radio frequencies.

 

I would love FW to move to plastic.

[Brother Captain Arkley]

 

Between FW apparently being blindsided by the announcement of 8th, being told by GW to pretty much rewrite Fires from the ground up and GW telling them to LCTB in order to free up warehouse space, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if Games Workshop are trying to sink them deliberately.

 

They get to ride on the wave of "B-BUT THIS IS THE NEW GAMES WORKSHOP, THEY CAN DO NO WRONG!" meanwhile letting Forge World - as if it were a fully independent entity - take the flak for those behind-the-scenes decisions, mostly being held up by those in the community who actively want Forge World to sink because they didn't move Heresy to 8th.

 

*Adjusts tinfoil hat*

Tin foil hats actually boost receptivity of government radio frequencies.

 

I would love FW to move to plastic.

 

 

 

100% I would be more willing to buy from FW that way... man having stuff like the Rhino doors in plastic would be so much better (for me)

[Rik Lightstar]

I don't believe that Forgeworld have caught up with where Games Workshop are as far as communication and customer facing decisions go. I think they still have a lot of "Tom Kirby" ethos going on.

 

I don't see what Forgeworld offers as a brand any more.

 

The specialist games stuff is over shadowed by the GW "competitors" of ShadeSpire and KillTeam. Both in quality and support. I love Necromunda and Bloodbowl, but you need a new £25 book for each Gang and its not far off that for the BB Teams.

 

The large kits don't compete on quality, the plastic Imperial and Eldar Knights are so much better to build than any of the Forgeworld big models.

 

Heresy support is patchy and sporadic by all accounts (I don't play Heresy).

 

I'd rather see the "talent" as far as rules and sculpts go moved into GW proper. Tie the releases better together. How did the Nurgle Bloodbowl team not get released alongside Nurgle Blightlords for AoS and DeathGuard for 40k for example?

 

Rik

[Bat33.1]

Rules design has been taken over by GW main recently - at least that is what Rob Symes (former front man for WHTV)  said recently on his honest wargamer twitch channel 

 

Forge World seem to be in a period of change currently, Tony Cottrell for all his enthusiasm can be a bit fast and loose which upsets the top brass and his appearances on WHTV have faded to almost invisible levels. Although they have been recently putting monthly 30k games on the channel after the LCTB rumours turned into FW is dropping HH in favour of new projects. I know people at the very top of GW are not huge fans of FW and the problems that resin production brings when attempting to scale it up to increase productivity. So long as FW makes a profit it will stay around but unless the move to plastic is coming, and not just for specialist games like Titanicus, I don't believe we will se an increase in output from FW. 

 

As for new plastic HH kits FW have said at open days they are not working on any new plastic kits, maybe in the future, who knows? Not me.

[N1SB]

Great discussion.  I either agreed with everything said or learned something new.  My favourite point you guys made was how GW is out FWing FW now.

 

So all I'm doing is laying out some other known facts & figures to help put this into perspective.  Many of you remember we previously discussed similar things on http://www.bolterandchainsword.com/topic/349245-gw-2018-annual-financial-report-and-analysis/ , but here I'll focus on FW.

 

FW is part of GW.  How big a part?  BEFORE GW's recent surge, it was the smaller half of its Mail Order business (about 20% of GW), so about 10% of GW overall.

 

In fiscal year 2016, after FW's HH Book 6: Retribution (which introduced rules for Shattered Legions), FW was actually "saving" the main GW Citadel line in Mail Order:

 

 

Mail order Sales fell by 1.8% (-1.6% at constant currency). Sales of our Forge World range grew by 28% offset by a 12% decline in our Citadel range. In the first half of 2016/17 we will be making a change to our home page; removing complexity and adding a deeper introduction to our worlds. We are committed to continuous investment in our web store shopping experience. During the year we successfully migrated our web data centre to a new location in North America.

 

In fiscal year 2017, after GW started doing customer outreach marketing activities, and did stuff like Gathering Storm and SW:A:

 

 

Mail order Sales grew by 27% (20% at constant currency). Sales of our Forge World range grew by 23% and our Citadel range by 31%. In the second half of 2016/17 we refreshed our home page; removing complexity and adding a deeper introduction to our worlds. We are committed to continuous investment in our web store shopping experience.

 

In fiscal year 2018, after a year of 40k 8th ed, but BEFORE the recent FW changes:

 

 

Online Sales grew by 36% (37% at constant currency). Sales of our Forge World range grew by 4% and our Citadel range by 52%. We are committed to continuous investment in our online shopping experience.

 

There's multiple reasons for why FW grew only 4% (and not like 52%-ish) and it's been bugging me, too.  I reckon Specialist Games like Blood Bowl and Necromunda (and now AdTech) are not reflected in this number, but GW knows still FW's creating value.  FW's also limited by its dependency on trained labour-intensive resin.

 

Plastic injection mold casting, on the other hand, is easily scalable/growable.  All you have to do is buy more equipment.  GW used to have about 20 million GBP of property, plant and equipment.  In its fiscal year 2018 (i.e. just recently) it spent another 15 million GBP to improve or increase its mini-making capacity because it's selling almost twice as much as it used to.  But that only works for plastic and not resin.

 

You can increase resin production capacity.  It just takes more time and training, but the nature of resin is it was meant for smaller-scale runs anyway.

 

+++++

 

The above is just evidence to support this conversation and what you already said so far.  The below are just my thoughts.

 

I agree GW's top brass doesn't like resin because GW is on a white-hot growth phase and resin production is a bottleneck.  That may not mean they don't like FW.

 

FW has no Retail costs, which is more than half of GW's costs, and it propped up their Mail Order numbers at one point, so it's more profitable than most of GW.  FW pretty much achieved its success on its own via its HH series, which is NOT only because of the 30k era but all the fun things they did with it.  GW itself copied ideas from FW, like direct player outreach with their Horus Heresy weekenders (I remember the highlight of The Hobby was when people like Lady Atia and Mr. Parker and others live-posted what was going on), bringing back Primarchs and narrative-based products (like how each HH book reflects the timeline moving forward, now we got Gathering Storm, and I highly suspect a new Plot-Moves-Forward thing soon).  I think there are times when GW's top brass are looking at how FW was growing faster than the rest of its business and telling GW's own design studios, "Hey...maybe you can try doing what your colleagues across the road at FW are doing?  Just try!"

 

And GW is helping FW.  It's like everything GW can do for FW, like GW printing out FW's Specialist Games main product ranges in plastic, stocking their stuff in their Retail, it's doing for them, while letting FW retain its independence.  It has the hallmarks of...if you guys worked in engineering/tech, you may know this, them trying to bring a skunkworks operation home.

 

TL;DR - I'm not sure GW's top brass is trying to kill FW off, they're trying to kill resin off, which was always meant for small-scale runs, like accessories.

 

And there's one final thing on FW that I hope I'm remembering correctly, please correct me if I'm wrong.  FW started out by making those big terrain boards, didn't they?  The HH series was just an experimental thing that became its main product range because it became so popular IIRC.  But basically, FW's fundamentally changed before, and it'll probably change again.

 

(For those that posited the idea that HH is shifting more and more towards plastic, you know I long agreed, but I'm starting to think it'll be in a even bigger way than before.  Previously, I suggested a plastic Leviathan Dreadnought BUT the weapon options will be in resin thru FW's site.  Now, I'm thinking Horus Heresy SIEGE Box One: The Gates of Terra WARMASTER EDITION all in plastic, sold as a premium product like the AdTit Grandmaster Edition.  How do you like them apples?)

[Son of Carnelian]

As always, N1SB, your perspective is invaluable. Thank you for the write-up. 

[SickSix]

N1SB thank you for the contribution to the discussion.

 

However I had heard FW started by making variant tanks for IG. I believe their Baneblade variants were some of their first really successful kits.

[m0nolith]

Always appreciate what N1SB has to say!

 

 

I do think that HH will eventually move more and more into plastic with FW making upgrades and weapons since that strategy has worked really well for them with Necromunda and BB (and probably AT in the future), but I have to admit the three punch combo of LCTB, the price hike and the dropping of the Calth and Prospero boxes has the HH hurting.

 

I love this game, and I dont want to see it relegated to the specialist games range. Even if GW does decide to double down on HH plastics, we will likely not see any plastics for at least two years (if ever), and a lot can happen in those two years.

[Subtle Discord]

I suspect GW might be biting the bullet and rewriting the HH rules for 8th and trying to do it discreetly before they drop something big. Given the confidence GW has built up in creating styrene injected plastics now, combined with the sizable resent investment in production capacity (which struggled with unexpected delays that I'm not sure they're done dealing with), it really does seem plausible that they'll shift the 'heavy lifting' of the HH line over to styrene production and let FW shift back to wargear, upgrades, conversion packs, and characters for the most part. The scale really is better suited to the resin casting production method; FW did produce a wide range of models large and small before the HH series, but that really did drive up demand and I suspect it's really started to hit a wall with the larger kits and squads of miniatures as that demand grew. Resin casting really does struggle with ramping up past a certain point where styrene injection just beats it by an order of magnitude.

 

I suspect HH is simply too popular for its own good, and Alan's unfortunate and unexpected passing added another serious bump in the road, but I don't think that'll reason for them to kill it. However, it does force them to figure out just what they're going to do with the product and the setting. GW can now do huge styrene kits with industry-leading results (that takes years to get really good at), they're in the process of doubling they're ability to produce, they've taken over writing the rules, culled out older stock, and (despite the pricing shenanigans) they just opened a FW warehouse in North America. Yeah, I'm not too worried about HH. But what do I know? I'm just addicted to whatever they add to the plastics they use.

[MARK0SIAN]

I doubt Heresy will move to 8th anytime soon. They’ve outright said they had no plans to do that less than a year ago, plus they published the new HH rulebook using most of the old rules. I know they’re very secretive about what’s coming up but so far I’ve never seen them actually lie about not planning to do something then going ahead and doing it.

 

Personally I’m glad it’s not moving to 8th. I mean, look at the rules for most Heresy models in 8th, they’re hardly inspiring and are ridiculously costed. Those units are not well represented compared to their 30K abilities/roles at all in 8th edition. Plus I love templates :)

[Robbienw]

Forgeworld started up in 1999.  The very first things they produced were Imperial Guard tank turrets and conversion kits.  Soon after those they started producing BFG accessories and ships, epic terrain, the baneblade, the collectors series statues and some smaller 40k terrain.

 

The big terrain boards are a much more recent thing.

[Kilofix]

I think regardless FW will survive and continue to be their “prototyping / pilot” division. Items that folks buy will move on to mainstream GW. Just like in the past with Baneblades, etc.

[sarabando]

Forgeworld started up in 1999.  The very first things they produced were Imperial Guard tank turrets and conversion kits.  Soon after those they started producing BFG accessories and ships, epic terrain, the baneblade, the collectors series statues and some smaller 40k terrain.

 

The big terrain boards are a much more recent thing.

They should go back to this just doing conversion kits not full models imo.

[SickSix]

I think Subtle Discord might be onto something.

 

It would be awesome to see more of HH in plastic. But what? Are they going to do the common units and vehicles? MkII Rhinos? Plastic Sicarans? I mean without moving onto plastic vehicles I don't think their is really much need for more plastic infantry.