Is Guilliman really as good as people perceive him to be?

[Ishagu]

I think this could make an interesting topic as Guilliman is often perceived as being overpowered even if the worldwide data doesn't actually support this accusation. Indeed, lists with Guilliman don't actually perform better than Astartes lists without, to any notable degree. The occasional list does sometimes make the top 10 at larger events but those are exceptions and not the rule.

 

There is an upper limit to Guilliman's effectiveness and the Pros and Cons need to be considered before making any conclusions as to his effectiveness. Let's first of all break down the theory and then break it down in practice.

 

 

Let's start with a Guilliman gunline consisting of 3 Tri-Las Predators that are targeting a Castellan. Let's see how the Primarch compares against a Captain and a Lieutenant and also Calgar with a Lieutenant.

 

RG:

12 shots with full re-rolls against a Catsellan with a 4+ invul will yield on average 16.6 wounds per turn. That's pretty decent!

 

Captain and Lieutenant:

Against the same Castellan they would produce 12.7 wounds. Not as good but not as far off as you might expect.

(12 * .777 * .777 * .5 * 3.5 = 12.7 example of how math is calculated)

 

Calgar and a Lieutenant:

This combination of characters produces 14.5 wounds which is very close to what Guilliman is able to create.

 

Now Let's consider the points:

 

-940 for the Primarch and the Predators.

-674 for the Captain and Lieutenant. This combination of units cost 72% of what it cost to bring Guilliman and the Predators but dealt 76% of the damage.

-800 for Calgar and the Lieutenant . This combination of units cost 85% of Guilliman's unit formation but deal 87% of the damage.

 

 

Guilliman grants you 3 CP which is very useful but he also takes up a LoW slot and your army will still require other HQ units so the costs start to spiral further.

 

Calgar grants two CP which is great and he can be one of the mandatory HQs in your list.

 

The Captain nets no CP but can be upgraded to a Chapter Master for a big boost in efficiency at a far lower point cost. You'd be looking at dealing 87% of the damage that Guilliman's formation was able to muster at only 72% of the cost. Of course in this instance you are losing a lot of CP.

 

 

There are scenarios where the full re-rolls of Guilliman grants a bigger increase in performance. One example is Bolters that are shooting at other T4 models where the Primarch's aura results in wounds 75% of the time whereas a Lieutenant only boosts the same attacks to wounding 58% of the time. However this can be mitigated by taking superior weapons with the points saved. Here are some examples:

 

 

Roboute Guilliman and 27 Marines comes in at 751 points.

Captain and Liutentant with 40 Marines, 8 of them armed with plasma comes in at 742 points. That's 9 less points and a lot more bodies. How do they compare?

 

RG + Marines against MEQ after wounds and saves = 5.3 casualties.

Captain and Lt against MEQ after wounds and saves = 10 Casualties

 

 

In both examples we are using what is practically at the limit of being in aura range during the typical game. After all you can't crowd your entire army around one 60mm base for more than a turn or two before you've fallen behind significantly with the objectives and board control.

 

Now, we need to account for Guilliman's incredible combat capabilities. The guy is wonderful defensive unit against any elite close combat elements that might be threatening your deployment zone. If anyone gets close the Primarch can advance from amongst his army and start slashing away clearing out units with ease. That's great. Certainly a lot better than a generic Captain and his trusty Lieutenant.

Calgar on the other hand isn't as far behind, and especially when you start to add additional characters into the fray. Guilliman is also very immobile - he can't ride in transports, he can't be held in reserves, he can't enter ruins (The last one is a big one as enclosed ruins leave him unable to engage the infantry inside in combat).

 

 

So, in theory and in practice Guilliman isn't an auto take once you break down the pros and cons. Is he good? Yes. Is he great in combat? Yes. Is he the best combat choice? No - that would fall on multiple smash captains that can get around faster and deal similar damage at a fraction of the cost.

Is he the best aura choice? Yes and No. Yes because it's the best aura, no because it's expensive and can only be in one place at any given time and moves around slowly. You could be taking multiple captains to bolster multiple points on the board instead.

 

Taking the Primarch means that you're taking less units. He is best used in 2k games or higher as you simply lose too much at lower levels. He does nothing to boost the endurance of your army and granting full re rolls doesn't mean anything if your heavy hitters are removed in the early turns by enemy firepower. Lots of people are angered by his apparent power but their anecdotal experiences indicate them as a vocal minority once you break down the performance of Astartes armies. Guilliman armies only win around 42% of their games at the current time!

 

So, that's some food for thought. In the meantime I can't wait for more Primarchs! lol

 

 

 

 

 

Just a shout out to Daedalus81 over at Dakka for providing the math used above

**Edit** Typo

Edited May 23, 2019 by Ishagu

[Race Bannon]

Dude, he's OP not because of math … but because of base size … with a flaming sword … in spaaaaaace …

 

:P

 

Neat read though :tu:

 

I'm firmly in the "whatever" camp because if people want to play with him, then go for it.  For those who want to gripe about him … well do it constructively

 

Other Primarchs returning is another thread yo.

[Ishagu]

Oh yeah, people should feel free to play whatever they want!

It warms my heart to see more Ultramarine. It fills it with anger when people use anecdotal experiences or personal dislikes to proclaim something as broken, overpowered or damaging to the game when it actually isn't! lol

Edited May 23, 2019 by Ishagu

[Gederas]

I think the main reason why people say Guilliman is overpowered is because he brings such powerful buffs he's probably one of the single best, if not THE best, force multipliers in the game. Combined with the fact you can't target him like the other two Primarchs because he's got less than 10 wounds, it's understandable people complain about him.

[Subtleknife]

But as Ishagu has shown it really isnt understandable in most situations to complain as you can get nearly the same for a lot less or loads more stuff for the same cost.

[Ishagu]

I think the main reason why people say Guilliman is overpowered is because he brings such powerful buffs he's probably one of the single best, if not THE best, force multipliers in the game. Combined with the fact you can't target him like the other two Primarchs because he's got less than 10 wounds, it's understandable people complain about him.

Yes, but the buffs aren't as powerful as perceived, as I've pointed out. Unlike the other Traitor Primarchs he isn't a fast, flying, psychic daemon so we can't really compare units designed with a different purpose in mind.

 

Although I actually agree that the Traitor Primarchs could get a point drop, and that a Traitor/Loyalist Alpharius should be released who is also a sub 10 wound character. In the meantime Abaddon isn't far off and he's half the price!

Also why get upset about targeting Guilliman? Just target the units around him - there's always less of those for including him.

 

We need to see past what is a popular opinion and correct it with what is actually the reality. Also I wanted to make a serious topic for a change lol

Edited May 23, 2019 by Ishagu

[Marshal Valkenhayn]

You are missing a lot of important points from your analysis.

 

While you have taken into account Guilliman's UM specific aura, you have completely ignored his 12 inch Imperium aura, which gives rerolls to any units with the Imperium keyword. That happens to be every soup unit that could possibly support marines, from assassins, to guard, to knights. He also gives improved charges and morale. Consider then that if you have a supreme command detachment of UM smash captains, you can also take Guilliman, make him your warlord, and get the 3 bonus CP. You can then include a guard battery, and still have plenty of points leftover for a knight, or whatever else you'd like your boys to be built around. 

 

For being a monster of a threat who can throw down mortal wounds in melee, having the best aura of any model hands down, and having the best soup aura at an incredible range, he is the best force multiplier in 40K bar none. The fact that he has a 3+ invuln, is tough, has a lot of wounds, and can come back to life just help to drive home how easy it is to keep him on the board. The longer he's around giving his buffs, the more worth you get out of him, and he's a lot harder to kill than a captain and lieutenant combo.

 

He's also a raging :cuss, but that's beside the point.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Race Bannon
Be careful of language for a family board, use the cuss emote please

[Ishagu]

Please be an adult about this lol

 

The Imperium aura is not impactful. I did actually consider it but it's not significant enough to factor into his play. Guard can get re roll 1s for 50 points and instead of Guilliman can run 3 extra T8 Tanks.

 

It doesn't benefit Knights more than an extra Knight, for example.

 

Other armies have access through other, cheaper means.

 

 

Also I did say specifically that his aura is the best. I also pointed out that the difference in performance between his aura and much cheaper auras actually means that his could be viewed as mildly over-costed.

 

His CC capability is great. I said so as much. It's not the best though for the reasons I mentioned. You can get more effective, dedicated CC with other units. It's not just about power but how effective that power is to project over a game with 5/6 turns.

 

*Edit* autocorrect typos lol

Edited May 23, 2019 by Ishagu

[Shadow Captain Vyper]

Isn't the example given deceptive though?

 

In your use-case, you are using a Strength 9 Weapon vs Toughness 8 target, so a 3+ to wound.

 

The moment you start to adventure out with a wider scope of misses, the more valuable Bobby G becomes.

 

With a 3+ to Hit and a 3+ to wound:

 

Captain/LT let you re-roll 16.667% of the misses and the wounds

Bobby G lets you re-roll 33.334% of the misses and the wounds

 

When you change it to 3+ to Hit and a 4+ to wound:

 

Captain/LT remain the same

Bobby G is now a 50% of your wound rolls

 

The more askew you set the hit/wound values, the more valuable he becomes.

 

Lets not forget that he lets you re-roll all wounds - something you cannot gain access to anywhere in the Imperium (I think?).

 

To bring it back into context - I don't think anyone has said that he, himself, against the Meta, is imbalanced. With his new point cost he is balanced quite well. What he does do however is make the "Choose your legion of choice" game rigged in a competitive context. Simply put: His force-multiplication ability is so good, Ultramarines WITH him are better than every other Codex Astartes option that does NOT have access to him.

 

I won't even address the Calgar comparison, as its sort of a silly option. Ultramarines get access to two Chapter-master re-rolls, one expensive, one cheap(ish). Calgar is an excellent choice with a legitimate stat line that you can actually afford to get him stuck in with a baddie - should it come to that.

 

Also the fact that Marine lists natively struggle with CP generation, and both Bobby G and Calgar provide some is - to be blunt - laughably perfect. While its hard to put a price on CP, if you use the Loyal 32 as a basis for evaluating the Cost/CP, that mkes them 46pts/CP. Obviously that doesn't account for the bodies on the field, lets say they are worth half that? Does 20-25 points a CP seem a fair valuation? If so, that means Bobby G has another baked in value of 60-75 points, and Marneus has another 40-50.

 

I think another side of the equation is this: The marine codex has a LOT of mediocre to bad units. In any other Codex chapter they stay bad, but suddenly standing next to Bobby G the begin to meet or exceed their cost to value relationship. The Stormraven is a great example of this (At the beginning of this edition). The unit is practically unusable from a competitive setting by any Codex Chapter other than Ultramarines, and this is solely due to Bobby G.

 

Nevermind the fact that hes fast, his big, hes tough as nails, and he kicks in teeth in CC. He's everything a son of the Emperor should be. He's just sadly not my legions daddy :( 

[Marshal Valkenhayn]

False arguments. If guard can get reroll 1s for 50 points, , subtract 50  points from Guilliman's cost. On top of that, for his cost, Guilliman is more useful than a knight. I'd rather have him and 1 than 2 knights. If you think the reroll 1s aura across all Imperium is a non factor, you dont' actually understand how 40 K works, and need to re-evaluate. That is all.

[Ishagu]

It's a non factor because Imperium armies already have it readily available across existing HQs.

 

I think you know very little, my sweet summer child. Can you please point out the non Ultramarine lists that include Guilliman that are setting the world on fire?

I can show you plenty of lists with Knight Gallants lol

 

I think you're stuck in the first month of 8th edition. Get out more, play more. You'll learn so much! And don't get so angry.

 

Remember what I said; There is a perception that Guilliman is overpowered or too good. I agree that he is good, but he's not overpowered.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Ishagu

[Gederas]

Lets not forget that he lets you re-roll all wounds - something you cannot gain access to anywhere in the Imperium (I think?).

Chapter Master of the Lamenters Malakim Phoros (Forge World) gives it to Lamenters (Dreadnought, Bikers and Infantry only) models. But other than him, Boggy G is the only one that does that.

[Ishagu]

 

 

Lets not forget that he lets you re-roll all wounds - something you cannot gain access to anywhere in the Imperium (I think?).

Chapter Master of the Lamenters Malakim Phoros (Forge World) gives it to Lamenters (Dreadnought, Bikers and Infantry only) models. But other than him, Boggy G is the only one that does that.

I thought about bringing this guy up. Makes the Contemptor Dreadnoughts even more impressive!

[PeteySödes]

It's interesting to me, I don't think he's super broken or anything, I just wish that the rules team didn't have to balance around him. Seems like forever ago already that they had to tone down razorback after some tournament domination. To me its hard to separate RGs issues from that of just soup in general.

 

Thanks for sharing the stats though, it's something to think about to be sure.

[Ishagu]

It's interesting to me, I don't think he's super broken or anything, I just wish that the rules team didn't have to balance around him. Seems like forever ago already that they had to tone down razorback after some tournament domination. To me its hard to separate RGs issues from that of just soup in general.

 

Thanks for sharing the stats though, it's something to think about to be sure.

Now this is a very interesting point. As far as I'm aware only a few units were negatively impacted by this. The Fire Raptor is a FW choice. The twin assault cannon Razorback is an index choice. The Raven was arguably too good by itself.

 

I think the impact to the codex was limited, but I will agree that this should probably be reverses now. I think so much has changed with the game since the initial months of 8th edition that all these things need to be looked at again.

[Marshal Valkenhayn]

Ishagu.

 

Nobody is going to run Guilliman in a non ultra marine list. That's not the point. The point is that you can include him in a soup list built off of UM and he does double duty. If you have 2 sorces of reroll 1s for your guard, and Guilliman, you now have 3 sorces. Guilliman can more or less buff your entire center or back row by himself, while buffing a knight  and your sniper assassins. Off hand I can't recall any other way to relyably give Vindicaire rerolls to 1. They hit on 2s, and while that is decently relyable, the last thing you want is your single-shot sniper missing. And, as I've mentioned, this is all cross compatible. he is a single unit that pulls duty buffing knights, guard, assassins, and turbo charges UM all at once. Wherever you move him through your army he makes it better, across the board, and makes you less reliant on detachment specific support units. 

 

The reroll 1s to all Imperium is incredibly potent, and is why I'm laughing at you for disregarding it. I know of very few Black Templar lists that don't take a Crusader's Helm, because extending our Marshal's aura that extra 3 inches is incredibly useful when positioning our forces. Guilliman has that aura, but 12 inches, and it applies to every single Imperium unit within range. Not mentioning that as a large reason you'd take him over Marnius is funny to me. If you were only to take UM I might agree that Marnius is a better investment, but in Soup, Guilliman is clearly the better choice, hands down. And that is why he's the best force multiplier in the game. The reason that you don't see many lists with him topping tournaments is because the UM you'd use for the core of that list are pretty bad. I might have seen, what, 1 UM Guilliman list in the past 5 months? If you wanted to do UM Imperium soup you'd take Guilliman without question. But UM Imperium soup just isn't as potent as Imperium soup that only dips for BA smash captains, or not into SM at all.

 

Still. If you are going to play Ultra Marines with Imperium allies, you will never take Marnius over Guilliman. There isnt' a universe in which that is a better choice.

[Ishagu]

I disagree because he only ever impacts armies that maximise his auras to the best effect. You're not bringing him in soup armies, generally. Yes. He'll buff the occasional Vindicare. If you truly intend on being so static that you're giving your opponent an advantage. That Vindicare isn't moving.

 

Typically Ultramarines are run as mono factions. They perform best this way.

 

Where are these Ultramarine soup lists you speak of? The idea behind this topic is to break down incorrect perceptions. It's not about what can be done but what is actually working.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Ishagu

[Shadow Captain Vyper]

I agree with you regarding the Imperium-focused aura - Its a neat thematic rule, but its hardly a key component of why he is taken in lists that he is.

 

I agree in essence with what Petey is saying: Because the nature of his UM-specific aura is such a powerhouse force multiplier, I think every unit in the codex (and new Primaris units to come) have to be balanced with that aura in mind.

 

I also agree that units that were nerfed at the beginning of 8th (Twin Assault Cannon cost, Fire Raptor and Stormraven costs) should probably be reverted at this point. In fact when they moved the Bolter Discipline rule from beta to official, I was a bit peeved that it was taken from vehicles (though I understand why - it was a thematic choice), as the Hurricane's pumping out full power on the Stormraven was one of the nice effects of that rule.

 

I will give you this: Bobby G does a LOT of things pretty well. If I wanted to make an argument about whats wrong/negative with him? He's doing too many things. Look at things that are top-tier in the meta: What do they all have in common? Most of them do one thing, very well, and are costed either appropriately or even under-costed for what they do. When you look at the cornucopia of things Bobby G brings, maybe his point value matches up well with it. But in reality, in how many games (if at all) are you getting to use all elements of him are you paying for?

 

I love his design and presence on the tabletop, I really do. But his design sort of shoe-horned his capability to cost ratio, and at the same time effected the entire Codex (Ultras aside). I think I would feel a lot better about him as a unit if he was ~50 points cheaper, and only re-rolled 1s to wound, as that would match him up with Lieutenants. Or, redesign him to be above the 10-Wound threshold thus he is target-able, and re-balance him points wise accordingly. 

 

Also, Gederas is right about the Lamenters CM. But that takes up your CM slot, so then you don't get the CM aura of Hit Re-Rolls unfortunately. 

 

Just to recap with my own TL;DR: I don't think he's imbalanced against the meta as a whole (in fact I think at this point he may be a tad under-tuned). I do however feel like when you look at him in the vacuum of just Codex: SM, he creates a balance of power issue that makes playing any chapter other than Ultramarines restrictive. Not prohibitive, just restrictive.

[Marshal Valkenhayn]

The last UM soup list I recall was, LVO? Fairly certain it scored top 10, , and was marine soup. Had a core of UM Predators and used BA smash captains and possibly something else? I'm pulling this from memory, can't recall the specifics. I'm not in a place where I can look it up currently.

 

If I were to build a Guilliman soup list in today's meta it'd probably be a Supreme command detachment with 2 Um librarians and a UM terminator smash captain, some terminators, and Guilliman himself. then I'd build the rest as IG with knight support and spend the CP for a mystery assassin. Where you put Guilliman on the field then depends on who you're playing and what the mission is, but it should do alright. 

 

The only thing that really holds Guilliman back in soup is not being an HQ. points wise he's fine, but being limited to 3 detachments in a 2,000 point game mean he's a little harder to slip in with his UM core And the supporting units from typical soup. If you give him solid UM support you burn a lot of points and close off other options, but it's very doable no matter how you slice it.

[Shadow Captain Vyper]

I believe you are talking about Aaron Towler's list:

 

Aaron Towler [Team Happy] – Adeptus Astartes

++ Battalion Detachment +5CP (Space Marine) [91PL, 1421pts] ++

Chapter Tactic: Mixed

HQ: Techmarine [4PL, 45pts]: Chainsword, Boltgun, Servo-Arm, Frag and Krak Grenades, Ultramarine

HQ: Sergeant Chronus [2PL, 30pts]: Bolt Pistol, Servo-Arm, Frag and Krak Grenades, Ultramarine

Troops: Intercessor [10PL, 153pts] x9: 9x Bolt Rifle, 1x Chainsword, 9x Frag and Krak Grenades, 8x Bolt Pistol, Ultramarine

Troops: Scouts [10PL, 88pts] x8: 8x Boltgun, 7x Bolt Pistol, 1x Chainsword, 8x Frag and Krak Grenades, Black Templar

Troops: Scouts [6PL, 73pts] x5: 4x Sniper Rifle, 1x Chainsword, 1x Heavy Bolter, 4x Bolt Pistol, 5x Frag and Krak Grenades, Ultramarine

Heavy Support: Predator [9PL, 156pts]: Predator Autocannon, 2x Heavy Bolter, 1x Hunter Killer Missile, Ultramarine

Heavy Support: Predator [9PL, 156pts]: Predator Autocannon, 2x Heavy Bolter, 1x Hunter Killer Missile, Ultramarine

Heavy Support: Predator [9PL, 150pts]: Predator Autocannon, 2x Heavy Bolter, Ultramarine

Dedicated Transport: Repulsor [16PL, 285pts]: 2x Ironhail Heavy Stubber, 2x Storm Bolter, 1x Icarus Ironhail Heavy Stubber, 1x Heavy Onslaught Gatling Cannon, 1x Twin Lascannon, Auto Launcher, Ultramarine

Dedicated Transport: Repulsor [16PL, 285pts]: 2x Ironhail Heavy Stubber, 2x Storm Bolter, 1x Icarus Ironhail Heavy Stubber, 1x Heavy Onslaught Gatling Cannon, 1x Twin Lascannon, Auto Launcher, Ultramarine

 

++ Patrol Detachment (Blood Angels) [10PL, 179pts] ++

Chapter Tactic: Blood Angels

HQ: Captain [6PL, 124pts]: Jump Pack, Thunder Hammer, Storm Shield, Blood Angel

Troops: Scouts [6PL, 55pts] x5: 5x Boltgun, 1x Chainsword, 4x Bolt Pistol, 5x Frag and Krak Grenades, Blood Angel

 

++ Super-Heavy Auxiliary Detachment (Ultramarine) [18PL, 400pts] ++

LoW: Roboute Guilliman [18PL, 400pts]

[Shadow Captain Vyper]

The above list isn't really soup at all and its basically an Astartes list through and through. One BA Smash Captain has no need of Guilliman in the list whatsoever. He's simply an agitator to disrupt lines or take out objective grabbers. 

 

The list hinged around leveraging 2 Repulsors with Full Hit/Wound rerolls to lay down a decimating turn 1 salvo of fire. The list revolves around Bobby G as a Hit AND Wound reroll battery, and there are multiple threads both here and on reddit talking about its pilot (Aaron) having played many many games and having a very strong understanding of the meta.

 

Its hardly an example of evidence to support Bobby G is imbalanced or broken. On the contrary its an outlier in a field of Castellans/Guard/Eldar.

[FlamingDeth]

It's interesting to me, I don't think he's super broken or anything, I just wish that the rules team didn't have to balance around him. Seems like forever ago already that they had to tone down razorback after some tournament domination. To me its hard to separate RGs issues from that of just soup in general.

 

Thanks for sharing the stats though, it's something to think about to be sure.

This is crux of the matter, really. Guilliman is unquestionably powerful (not to be confused with overpowered) and the rules team have sort of written themselves into a corner with his aura, because every other unit in the codex has to be balanced around the possible interaction with his aura, regardless of whether or not that interaction ever happens in practice. I mean, they might be able to sort of get around it by buffing all non-UM chapter traits, but then that screws over UM players that don't want to include him. Edited May 23, 2019 by FlamingDeth

[Ciler]

The math is neat, but it overlooks a number of other factors because you chiefly look at the damage output. Would you care to redo your calculations to check the points to wound ratio in terms of the firepower it takes to bring down RG compared to Calgar or a captain, for instance ?

 

RG is powerful not just because of his rerolls, but because of all the other things he brings to the table (CP, area denial threat, wound soaking, etc). 

[Marshal Valkenhayn]

To clarify, i don't think Guilliman is broken at all. My contribution to this discussion has been that Guilliman has more to bring to the table than Marnius, and that the original post didn't mention his Imperium aura, which is actually useful, and a reason that you'd consider him over other options. I also stand by my statement that Guilliman is the greatest force multiplier in the game. There is nobody else who brings the sheer amount of aura to the table as he does, that is as widely applicable as his is. Whether or not people choose to use him for such is up to them.

[BLACK BLΠFLY]

There is nothing wrong with RG now that he is properly costed. There are plenty of other terrible like Knights and Deamon Primarchs to cry about... best thing to do is just get over it and move along. Ishagu has presented a basically infallible argument here.