Eliminator Math Request

[Bluflash]

I've been mashing around with mathhammer, but I'm not trusting my results.
Would another Frater kindly assist?

 

I'm trying to determine the effectiveness of Guided Aim vs taking a shot with the Sgt.
From what I'm seeing, its practically (minutely) always better to use guided aim, especially since it ups it to a 1/3 chance of a mortal.

I'm also trying to understand if the value changes with Master Artisan re-rolls. With a baked in reroll is it better to then take the 3rd shot?

 

Many thanks!

[mertbl]

I dont know the math but I've seen it repeatedly that using the bonus is better than the 3rd shot.

[MajorNese]

Did the math. Just one squad, no hit modifiers, and the good ammo to account for the MW difference. In short, a squad shooting a regular target.

 

Shots -> successfull hit rolls -> successfull wound rolls against different target groups:

 

 

Without any rerolls, Guided Aim, even with slightly less hits, wounds every toughness group more often than the regular firing mode. Not by much in case of anything below T6, but still consistent. Also the MWs inflicted bump up from 0.33 to 0.55.

 

Rerolls tilt it a bit in favor of unguided aim, but the increased MW chance of guided aim should still offset that.

Edited August 20, 2019 by MajorNese

[Panzer]

Basically: as long as there isn't anything else that modifies the hit or wound chance (using the ammunition with +2 to-hit or various re-rolls) using guided aim results in slightly higher average damage output. Very very slightly. Also against targets with high toughness like character Dreadnoughts or Guilliman, but those are usually too tough to be sniper targets anyway.
It's a tradeoff between damage potential (12 -> 8) and reliability (easier rolls).

 

If you are like me and deploy your Eliminators forward so they can also soak up lots of enemy shooting with their 1+ save in cover and if you also hate units doing nothing instead of doing a little bit, then you are more likely to use guided aim most of the time.
If you deploy your Eliminators with your backline where your Captain and/or Lieutenant sits (or like to use their phobos variant for the infiltration ability) or you gamble for that one big round of shooting where they do a LOT of damage, you are less likely to use guided aim most of the time.

Edited August 20, 2019 by sfPanzer

[MajorNese]

Yep, guided aim makes sense almost all of the time.

It's a bit counter-intuitive to throw away a third of your shots just for a bonus, but the math averages out to mostly the same results, or even better ones at higher toughness, when not accounting for MWs.

 

I did some additional math, regarding resulting damage when factoring in multi damage and MWs on a single model. Doubling the chance for MW offsets any drawbacks in all but one case - captain (with or without LT) againt T<5, on a multi-wound target without 5++ (or 5+ armour left after AP). And even that is marginal enough, so just take Guided Aim unless you're feeling lucky.

 

Considering the sarge would be unlikely to shoot anyway, it might be worth considering to replace the bolt sniper rifle with the getaway gun instigator bolt carbine for +2p.

Speaking against this would be the fact that, if a single model dies of that unit, Guided Aim will lose its effectiveness and there won't be a second sniper rifle left to compensate.

 

Also, after factoring in a 4++, the average damage of a squad against T<5 stacks up to 1.94 without any rerolls, or 2.26 with captain. With Rule of 3, that would be an average damage output of one dead primaris captain per round, making these guys indeed a considerable threat. Add in a phobos captain, and you got a nice detachment of "Screw that character. And that one. And the one over there."

[Dracos]

I like the models myself. Indeed to get the new books of course our supplement .... but, I’m curious how well an equal amount of Intercessors with Stalker Bolt Rifles could be tooled up with doctrines, litanies, and stratagems to go character hunting?

 

I really want to like many of the Vanguard releases but until I see our supplement I’m holding off on purchases. I really like Intercessors cost and the more bodies Incan get on the table the better IMO. I know there’s a tipping scale that some weapons just can’t be substituted for ie Plasma, but the more utility Incan get out of a “standard” Bolt Rifle the better. Between Intercessors, Aggressors, and Reivers I have a ton of dakka already. The more I can use RG abilities to substitute for Phobos shenanigans the better.

 

I really like the Incursors and Eliminators but honestly if they had a decent Scout model I still would just use those instead.

[MajorNese]

I like the models myself. Indeed to get the new books of course our supplement .... but, I’m curious how well an equal amount of Intercessors with Stalker Bolt Rifles could be tooled up with doctrines, litanies, and stratagems to go character hunting?

Without including doctrines/litanies/strats - 3 Eliminators equal 4.23 stalker Intercessors. At S4 they are worse at wounding T4 (which is quite common), they have only the unguided percentage of MW (0.16 per hit), they have the same AP (though improved under a different doctrine) and same average damage per unsaved wound (d3 = 2).

 

Calculated it for no rerolls and other buffs (there is no to-wound modification AFAIK), and they are between unguided and guided aim under peak conditions, but get worse at T4 or above.

 

To be honest, I don't see much value in stalker Intercessors for character hunting. They require 3 CP for a single round to even target a character, which is prohibitively expensive for me, given that marines don't exactly swim in CP. If that fails, there's no other chance to kill that dude. The stalkers only having S4 makes them unreliable against the single most prominent army, and buffing them where possible requires external assistance that would have helped Eliminators all the same, who are just more reliable and effective. Intercessors as character hunters are just unwieldy, unreliable and a CP sink.

Compare that with the Eliminators' camo cloak and positioning options, and the only reason to ever use Intercessors for this would be already having a full squad of 10, and a single squishy T3 target character without proper invul that could be taken out without having expressly spent points on snipers.

 

Eliminators on the other hand are a plug-and-play solution. Dump them somewhere with LoS, as RG enjoy their 1+ save in the open, self-buff them to dish out more against anything, and start killing characters. For 315p you could field a detachment of 3x3 Eliminators with a Phobos captain (and +1CP - Target Priority WL trait?), which can be freely positioned and can overkill a primaris captain per round (on average). Not to mention they are soaking up a lot of firepower if they are not ignored, thanks to camo cloaks and enough range to not get killed by chaff fire right away. Regarding doctrines, they are also at an advantage - buff characters need to be taken out ASAP, and turn 1 those Eliminators receive doctrine bonus already.

If you were concerned about enemy pre-game movement or Concealed Position, you could even use those 3 squads to block large areas from pre-game movement/Concealed Positions, then use Lord of Deceit to pull them back to where they can work best.

[Claws and Effect]

I'm planning on giving my Las-fusil squad Sgts the carbine and using guided aim every turn.

 

Hit on 2s, wound on no worse than a 4 on the vast majority of targets, and they can move away from assaults.

[Panzer]

I'll avoid the Carbine. My Eliminators will sit on top of terrain most of the time anyway so a free move won't help them that much to avoid getting charged and once the first Eliminator is dead I need the second shot from the Sergeant.