Jump to content

Welcome to The Bolter and Chainsword
Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to create topics, post replies to existing threads, give reputation to your fellow members, get your own private messenger, post status updates, manage your profile and so much more. If you already have an account, login here - otherwise create an account for free today!
Photo

GW profits up again, shares up 700% in three years


  • Please log in to reply
38 replies to this topic

#1
Aramis K

Aramis K

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 546 posts
  • Faction: Ω XX Ω
"Games Workshop now estimates that it will have booked sales of at least £140m – a 12 per cent increase – for the six months to the start of December. Profit before tax is set to rise 35 per cent and will not come in lower than £55m, it added."


https://www.cityam.c...ofits-beat-55m/

Always interested in any insights others can draw from this.
  • N1SB, betrayer41, Chimpeh and 5 others like this
I'm on Instagram as Aramis_esq

Mentor Legion, Deathwatch, and bastard geneseed log
"Officially, they were designated the Unnumbered Sons of the Primarchs, but they called themselves the Greyshields. They were the new sons of old science, and they had no fraternity but their own."

My Heresy Alpha Legion log - XX in progress

#2
Mechanicus Tech-Support

Mechanicus Tech-Support

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 229 posts
  • Location:Canada
  • Faction: FW Lucius, Steel Confessors

Waiting for earnings report for that sweet sweet N1SB breakdown. But the stock is currently trading above the target estimate because of the news, got quite a nice bump.


  • N1SB, Son of Carnelian, m0nolith and 3 others like this

[Forgeworld] Lucius & Friends [Steel Confessors] WIP Log: Access data-link: Praise be to the Omnissiah


#3
Marshal Rohr

Marshal Rohr

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 16,691 posts
  • Location:Georgia
  • Faction: 7th Terran Regiment

Excellent news and very well deserved. 


  • Master Commander Ajax, N1SB and Wakkomaster like this

Your opinion is important, and someone posting here probably does care what you think. You should go tell them. Remember that it really hurts to come up with an idea you care about and have no one else care. Go care about something and tell them what you think. Now. Think of what it would have meant to you when you were young.

 

+++The Iterators Guild+++

A Group for Lore Minded Hobbyists and World Building Projects

 


#4
Lanparth

Lanparth

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 493 posts

I'd be concerned with some of the language they've used in recent investor engagements, but overall for the company itself, this is positive.


  • N1SB likes this

#5
N1SB

N1SB

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,100 posts

Waiting for earnings report for that sweet sweet N1SB breakdown. But the stock is currently trading above the target estimate because of the news, got quite a nice bump.

 
Thank you humbly for the info, then the call-out.  I literally just got home and showered, will edit this post shortly after reading and checking some figures.  *makes sign of the Cog*
 
 
+++ I read the article and put this chart together +++
 
 
Why have I, and perhaps all of us, been interested in Games Workshop's financial figures, which they release in accordance to shareholder expectations and tax law?
 
After reading your great comments, I'm also coming back and putting in additional points in Italics in response.
 
For me it's like reading Codex: Games Workshop or its Chapter Approved For Real Life, where we can study their financial figures like they were units' points costs...which is always exciting to us 40k players.  The ACTUAL Half-Year report will be out in January, so I see the news article...which corresponds to GW's own post here, like a Warhammer Community preview.
 

Following on from the Group’s update in September, trading to 3 November 2019 has continued well.  Compared to the same period in the prior year, sales and profits are ahead. Royalties receivable are also significantly ahead of the prior year driven by the timing of guarantee income on signing new licences.
 
Our preliminary estimates of the results for the six months to 1 December 2019 are sales of not less than £140 million and profit before tax of not less than £55 million.
 
A further update will be given as appropriate.

 
I will come back to comment on this statement but let's plug in their figures for now:
 
 

gallery_57329_13636_23420.jpg

 
 
+++ Revenue growth with summer Big Bang releases +++
 
 
Fraters, you already know GW usually has a Big Bang in the summer.  That actually corresponds to GW's financial year and is almost By Design.
 
These Half-Year reports capture those time periods, BEFORE and NOT including Christmas, so they've been interesting to me to see how those Big Bang releases did at launch.  I KNOW there's other stuff, every month I find something I want to buy but have no time to paint, but the summer's Big Bang releases are the major drivers.  (And because I'm comparing Half-Years to Half-Years, not a continuous Full Year, I'm using a bar chart precisely because it's not a continuum, it's almost like we're comparing these Big Release months with one another instead.)
 
These Big Bangs aren't so much to drive sales of ONLY those new releases, but to get people's attention during schools' summer vacation months in most parts of the world, and drive them to their stores.  It's like the Products are a Promotion tool...that they happen to sell as well.  Previously GW consistently states that about their products are about 30% New: 70% Old iirc.  So like when 8th ed 40k came out, you might not have bought the new Primaris, but you might have bought all the old Imperial Guard minis instead because they benefited from the new meta.
 
So what's the trend here?  A quick review, because I noticed there's a number that constantly jumps out at me.
 
For about a decade before 2016, GW's growth was flat.  It didn't even change for Age of Sigmar's release (in fact, revenue declined about £1 million), and it was not until its General Handbook and worldwide official campaign, the Season of War, corresponding with many marketing activities like the creation of the Warhammer Community site.  For the 1st time in a decade, GW's Half-Year revenue grew £15 million in 2016's 1st Half-Year.
 
Then 2017 was a huge leap forward with 8th ed 40k, almost a £40 million jump, which of course was especially pertinent to us here on Bolter & Chainsword.  After that, 2018 saw the release of AoS 2nd ed, a little bit more than £15 million.  Now, in 2019 we again see growth of an estimated £15 million...but what was the Big Bang this summer?
 
 
+++ Was it just Contrast paints and Marines 2.0? +++
 
 
In previous summers, it was all about the Big Releases around GW's flagship products, 40k and AoS.  We didn't have that this year...in fact, I was actually concerned by the LACK of news for a Big Release before the summer.  Instead we got those weird 50 Shelves of Grey parody videos, then the Space Marine 2.0 Codex and Supplementary Founding Chapter Codices.
 
Turns out...maybe those ARE the equivalent of a Big Bang.  When AoS drives a growth spurt, it's around £15 million.  This year, it's around £15 million with Contrast paints and Marines 2.0.  Isn't that interesting?  It's like the growth triggered by just Contrast paints and the new Marine books is the equivalent of a whole AoS re-release.
 
To be clear, I'm not saying GW sold £15 million's worth of Contrast paint pots and Marine Codices.  It's more like how Contrast helped clear our backlogs so we have an excuse to buy more miniatures.
 
This statement about Contrast paints is the type of thing I'm waiting for the actual Half-Year report that'll come out in January to confirm.  GW doesn't break down sales by product (except for Black Library which happens to be a separate line item), but sometimes we can parse some information.  I'm remarking on this precisely because I don't think Contrast should be as Big a Bang as, say, a new edition of 40k or even AoS, so this was surprising to me.
 
The new Marine Codices got a player still on the fence about Primaris Marines to get off the fence and start buying boxes of Easy-To-Build Aggressors for his new Salamanders Successors with the +3" range and Stealthy Chapter Tactics (btw, for a flamer-intensive Successor, I personally interpret Stealthy as "Smokey", like they're burning so much stuff all the smoke obscures them from ranged weapons).  And there's other stuff being sold obviously, there's business as usual, but it's like these 2 things are the major difference, the change, the delta.  They're triggers to buy other stuff...all adding up to this £15 million.
 
An important note is that the Marine 2.0 releases didn't come out until mid-August, about 3 months ago to this date, so basically half of a Half-Year.  They mostly missed the sweet summer window...yet already it's contributing enough to the equivalent of a Big Bang.  That's impressive.
 
And it's fascinating to me.  Before, I estimated for every 1 AoS/Warhammer Fantasy purchase/player, there's about 2 to 3 40k players.  Now I'm seriously wondering if for every 1 AoS purchase/player, there's about 1 Loyalist Space Marine purchase/player, NOT even counting the Traitors and Xenos among 40k players.  It's surprising but not unexpected, actually, with Loyalist Marines being almost certainly the most popular armies.  I realise I say that here on Bolter & Chainsword, but there we are.
 
 
+++ A quick note about Contrast paints +++
 
 
Contrast paints are the most hilarious concept to me.  I take delight in them beyond how they help me finish backburner projects.
 
It's because...until they were actually invented...they were like a ridiculous fantasy dreamt up by some business/management consultant.  Like he was hired by GW to solve 1 problem: how do we get people to buy even more miniatures?  And after holding extensive focus groups, he found out the hurdle is NOT a lack of demand, it's that we got too big a backlog of unpainted miniatures.
 
I imagine this guy dreaming up crazy concepts like outsourcing miniatures painting to China or something.  Then after some GW staffer politely pointed out to him that idea is like not wanting to build LEGOs and instead outsourcing that to China, and is therefore dumb, they eventually had a conversation that lead to the creation of the Contrast range.
 
Dude is like, "Why 2 thin coats?  That just takes more time.  How do we turn that into 1 thick coat?  That'll reduce the sales cycle length...hang on I've got the spreadsheet open right here...by HALF!"  This whole thing cracks me up.
 
 
+++ Why is this news article and investors so optimistic about GW? +++
 
 
I think I know what they're thinking, and I reckon you Fraters do too, especially those of you in a.) retail and b.) the UK.
 
I think the reason is there has been no GOOD news from retail or the UK...except for GW.  That in itself is already very exciting.
 
The retail apocalypse...with mainstays like Toys 'R Us closing down recently (and rumours of re-opening in a new style), and SEARS going bankrupt, is a huge fear.  We think of GW as, well, a games company (it's in their name after all), but we understand it's mostly a miniatures company.  In terms of operating expenditure...it's actually a retailer, with 50% of their costs going to their Retail channel i.e. Warhammer Stores.
 
That is why this business article focuses on the retail aspect.  Sure, there is that element where most normals only know Warhammer from the stores they pass by, but with half their ongoing costs in those stores, that's the real legit reason why they talk so much about it (assuming they did their homework by reading GW's financial reports, like we do here).
 
An important side observation here.  I've noticed these business articles always talk about the high street retail scene, I'm not going to link them all but I remember another one where GW was overtaking major brand companies in the stock market, like how its market capitalisation i.e. company value now exceeds that of a major UK retailer (like Selfridges or something).  Like this is the lens these journalists see through...which isn't wrong and actually very relevant as I mentioned about GW's cost structure.  But it's important to note, unlike those UK retailers, GW makes most of its money outside of the UK...which is an important distinction imho and why it looks particularly attractive to investors.
 
Now business journals are talking about a new retail renaissance, where shops are not just a place to buy products, but to have experiences, in an experience economy, y'know, for millennials.  Like they can go to a store and, I dunno, not only get expert advice about how to use their products, but a place to "play" with their products, and with each other, to interact with other customers forming real-life peer-to-peer networks?  Like...like an Apple Store, but even more innovative, even more interactive!
 
That's the type of stuff I hear in TEDx talks by supposed business gurus about what's going to be the next huge breakthrough in the future...which is what Games Workshop has been doing since its 1st shop almost 45 years ago.  GW is mistakenly perceived as old-fashioned because its main products, miniatures, are seen as dated, but its business practice with Warhammer Stores is what everyone else wants to be in the future.  I gotta take one of these guys to a Warhammer Store.
 
Meanwhile, in the UK, there's not much positive business news.  It's not just the Brexit (which I don't understand enough about and apparently no one does either), there's more than that, but regardless, GW is a standout.  So far, for the last 3 years, all GW's news has been pretty positive.  So it's not just GW is doing well, it's that it's doing well despite a pretty dour environment, which just makes it look twice as good.
 
But as an investor, perhaps the most interesting thing is...
 
 
+++ The Bottom Line +++
 
 
So at the top I talked about top line growth a.k.a. revenue, but the real exciting part for investors is the bottom line a.k.a. profit.
 
Revenue has been growing, we keep on seeing that roughly £15 million growth (except for 40k where we had an even bigger surge)?  Look at the black bar in the graphic above again please (painted black because profits and in honour of Black Templars).  Notice how much bigger the black bar looks from 2014 to now?
 
GW's costs has been pretty fixed; no matter how much it grows, it's got about the same costs, which means everything is just profit.  So while revenue has been growing from 2014 to now is not quite 3 times...which is already amazing in that short a time, profit is fast approaching TEN TIMES (10x) what it was back then.  Investors look at dividends, i.e. the payouts for their investment, which is determined by this number.
 
What's more, that's not likely to change even with uncertainties like, say, the Brexit, because GW is a British company that produce in Britain.  I'll give a counter-example.  Imagine a company that gets most of its goods/supplies/etc. overseas and sells in the UK.  After something like the Brexit, it'll have to pay more for those overseas goods/supplies/etc. because it'll likely be subject to new compliance costs or outright tariffs or worse exchange rates.  GW is the opposite of that, it makes miniatures in the UK, then sells mostly (about 75%) to the rest of the world, so it might pay less to produce more.  In short, GW would actually be quite robust against changes caused by something like the Brexit theoretically.
 
 
+++ TL;DR +++
 
 
> GW revenue exciting, profits even more so
> Driven not by some flagship product line big release, but by Contrast and Marines 2.0
> In other words, it's not even a big year for them and GW's still doing great
> GW's achieving all this despite a gloomy environment
 
Sorry for the long post, didn't have time for a short one, but there's 1 thing more of interest to me.
 
 
+++ I had a weird thought +++
 
 
I'm looking back at this now and, the share price increase, the news article, then my post were all triggered by the same thing: the Trading Update GW itself posted just yesterday.  I discussed what they're saying in relation to things that we, their most knowledgeable customers (we're like their "smart marks" or "smarks"), but it doesn't touch on the most interesting thing to me.
 
It's NOT WHAT GW is saying (which the market, then journalists, then us are reacting to), it's the WHEN.
 
This is like a Half-Year trade update except for the fact that the Half-Year is not up yet.  Even when that date is up, GW (and any other company) would release this sort of statement with vague description of how they're meeting/ahead of expectations before an actual formal report later, as they got to count all the money.  GW still has a whole month before they even have to talk about it, and they do so with utmost confidence with that strange turn of phrase repeatedly of "no less than £X million"; they didn't have to go into that level of detail now.
 
You can check it out yourself, seriously, compare this recent statement to all their past statements, it's a very different tone.
 
So despite normally issuing vague statements after the fact, they're giving actual estimates ahead of schedule?  This is like a Humble Brag.
 
Thus it leads to the question, WHY issue this so early in so much detail?  I was thinking back to this £15 million figure that consistently re-appears, is that sort of the "sales growth quota" the CEO and CFO agreed with GW's institutional investors on?  It's like saying "we already made our target...let's all take the rest of the month off lol, we'll just show up at work and play Warhammer all day."  New CEO Kevin Rountree doesn't do Humble Brag, he doesn't even Brag, I remember business journalists complaining he should talk to them more, because he's a guy more interested in doing well than looking good.  And these Trading Updates are meant as statements to shareholders, so this is very out of character.
 
So WHY?  I have a working thesis I'm not so certain about, so I'll put into in this spoiler:
 

Spoiler

 
I dunno, I worked as a Corporate Finance Analyst, but didn't do Financial Controls even though I've had gigs where remuneration was very performance based, but I never asked where exactly the money came from.  I'll talk to a guy who did hopefully tomorrow.
 
Or was he under pressure for a summer Big Bang, like I mentioned?  I talked about Contrast, but not everyone of us was impressed by that idea, and maybe neither were the shareholders.  You guys think us players act all entitled, shareholders are way worse, they act like they own the company (because they do), and they might have been giving the CEO a hard time about this.  Maybe they wanted Sisters of Battle to be forced ahead of schedule to the summer and the CEO fought back to give his guys time to work, and this is his way of saying this was the right call, and now you have Sisters of Battle on top of this good performance.
 
But I don't know, feel free to speculate, but I do think this is the right thing to speculate about.


Edited by Brother Tyler, 11 November 2019 - 03:42 PM.

  • andes, evilhomer, Sandlemad and 31 others like this

gallery_57329_13636_19556.jpg


#6
Son of Carnelian

Son of Carnelian

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 3,462 posts
  • Location:Columbus, Ohio
  • Faction: Blood Angels and Black Legion
In N1SB we trust! Can't wait to read his take. Thank you in advance, brother.
  • Marshal Rohr and N1SB like this

#7
Aramis K

Aramis K

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 546 posts
  • Faction: Ω XX Ω
There's the N1SB take I hoped for.
Thank you.
  • N1SB likes this
I'm on Instagram as Aramis_esq

Mentor Legion, Deathwatch, and bastard geneseed log
"Officially, they were designated the Unnumbered Sons of the Primarchs, but they called themselves the Greyshields. They were the new sons of old science, and they had no fraternity but their own."

My Heresy Alpha Legion log - XX in progress

#8
Noserenda

Noserenda

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,380 posts
  • Location:Southampton, UK
  • Faction: Scythes of the Emperor
Interesting look as alwaysN1sb, I did hear tell long ago that marines outsold the entire rest of the gw range, makes sense with the rise of Aos that they might get closer to parity.

And yeah the knock on effects of contrast... I really need more of them :)
  • N1SB likes this

34625419033_b96a180fe5_o.png


#9
wildweasel

wildweasel

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 2,351 posts

 

> Driven not by some flagship product line big release, but by Contrast and Marines 2.0

 

 

While those certainly help, there's also no doubt that some of the ongoing growth is just more people playing and being more willing to invest more into buying things for the games overall.

Contrast also likely had the effect of helping to expand the customer base at least a bit by lowering the perceived barrier to painting.

ETA: And thank you for the overall analysis!


Edited by wildweasel, 08 November 2019 - 10:30 PM.

  • N1SB likes this

#10
ERJAK

ERJAK

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,142 posts
Marines 2.0 I can see (thunderfire cannons and centurions were soldout in all of NA for a while) but contrast paints...not so much.

I would also contest that AoS 2 was actually a significant event. It barely changed the rules after the initial round of 'oops, sorry!' And had anemic product offerings associated with it.

The way I see it is that they had actually been artificially suppressing demand with their terrible anti-consumer business practices and that...not doing that, combined with expected growth from a well supported, quality product stack is why growth has been so consistently high.
  • N1SB likes this

#11
Fajita Fan

Fajita Fan

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,503 posts
  • Location:Virginia
  • Faction: All of them?

Sister of Battle aren't even out yet... eek.gif


  • N1SB and Wakkomaster like this

#12
DeadFingers

DeadFingers

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,993 posts

I would also contest that AoS 2 was actually a significant event. It barely changed the rules after the initial round of 'oops, sorry!' And had anemic product offerings associated with it.

I'd wager it wasn't so much the 2nd Edition on its own, but the Maggotkin/Daemons of Nurgle, Daughters of Khaine, Deepkin and Nighthaunt coming out that year that did it for AoS. Besides the Stormcast releases, of course.


Edited by DeadFingers, 09 November 2019 - 08:26 AM.

  • N1SB and Doctor Perils like this

#13
N1SB

N1SB

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,100 posts

Thanks for your comments as well all, and to Brother Aramis for spotting the news in the 1st place, eagle eyes yo.

 

I want to also mention in the above post and this one, it sounds like I'm being harsh on AoS.  I don't wish to be, in fact, in the last few months the GW game I've been playing non-stop is Warcry, and I've been having the most fun with a GW product since Talisman.  But it scares me a little how little impact AoS has compared to 40k.

 

I'm also taking your points as feedback to append what I originally said.

 

 

While those certainly help, there's also no doubt that some of the ongoing growth is just more people playing and being more willing to invest more into buying things for the games overall.

Contrast also likely had the effect of helping to expand the customer base at least a bit by lowering the perceived barrier to painting.

ETA: And thank you for the overall analysis!

 

 

That's absolutely true, sheer ongoing growth momentum IS a thing, and in a way the biggest thing.  It's absolutely gonna be a % of that £15 million figure for this Half-Year 2019.  In fact, the rule of thumb that GW has stated consistently in the past is that it's product mix is like 30% New : 70% Old.  That in itself proves your point, but my point is that we're not in disagreement.  It's like how when 8th ed came out, I wasn't buying the new rules or Primaris, instead I was buying old miniatures like Nurglings and IG/AM tanks because the new Detachment system lets me do armies I couldn't do before (which I won an Armies on Parade prize with).

 

And that's why you and I are totally in-line on Contrast, is that it's not so much about the Product but the Promotion.  I've said in the past AoS's initial release saw no growth (in fact a slight decline), and it was not until the General's Handbook ALONGSIDE the official summer campaign Season of War that drove people into stores that kickstarted GW's growth, i.e. it's not the Merchandise but the Marketing.  In this case, the Promotion IS Contrast in that it makes The Hobby a lot more viable to people who were interested in Warhammer but intimidated by the prospect of painting, never even tried because of that fear.

 

And I WISH GW focused more on Contrast's newcomer-friendly quality.  That might happen more on the Retail channel (i.e. Warhammer Stores) or Trade channel (i.e. FLGS) where you have friendly, expert sales staff to advise those new customers, I dunno, but you guys probably recall during the initial Contrast launch they did a bunch of videos focused on experienced Golden Daemon painters exclusively?  My point then & now was, that's good, but they completely neglected even better stories by, say, tournament players who want to raise and therefore paint armies fast, or your excellent point about new players.  Those are equally important stories.

 

Case in point - the best customer testimonial EVER, the type of story I wished I came across in my own career for the products I managed, was this story by our fellow Frater StaggerLee on Contrast on the FW HH Priamrch Leman Russ.  Look at how amazingly beautiful the paint job is...then realise our Frater has a physical condition that made it hard for him to paint otherwise.  It makes the customer a hero, it makes the product a hero, not just showing the utility of a product but inspires hope.

 

That said, I also reckon GW is trying to build a network with YouTubers and Bloggers and "influencers", and used Contrast as a bargaining chip in that, I've done similar things with my products, so I understand, and there's only so much they can do in a short time.  But product launch is not a Sudden Bolt of Lightning, it's Rolling Thunder, and I hope they continue to bring focus on Contrast as it's a bit of a trigger point right now, but it could be a genuine gamechanger.

 

Marines 2.0 I can see (thunderfire cannons and centurions were soldout in all of NA for a while) but contrast paints...not so much.

I would also contest that AoS 2 was actually a significant event. It barely changed the rules after the initial round of 'oops, sorry!' And had anemic product offerings associated with it.

The way I see it is that they had actually been artificially suppressing demand with their terrible anti-consumer business practices and that...not doing that, combined with expected growth from a well supported, quality product stack is why growth has been so consistently high.

 

Yeah, you might be right, and that's what I'd wait for the actual report, ETA January, to say something definite.

 

So I'll show you my thinking, having read through a decade of GW's annual reports.  You already know they don't break down revenue by product group (some companies do, but they don't have to, it's just nice to have that info)...except for things like Black Library (which interestingly hasn't grown as fast as the rest of GW, it always hovers around the £2 million range annually.  I THINK but have to double-check, and maybe I can sort of parse out if there was a sudden spike in paints sales, which would indicate Contrast triggering additional sales.

 

And to be clear for everyone clicking on this thread for the 1st time, we agree it's not so much the sale of Contrast paints themselves, but people accelerating miniatures purchases because now they can paint them faster with Contrast.  You're not convinced by that (whereas you do believe in Marines 2.0), and tbh I'm not totally sure myself either.

 

What I will share is that about a week after they previewed before purchase, that's when we did the Initial Contrast Experiments by B&C thread, I went to buy them and there was specifically 1 colour which they TOTALLY sold out of: Skeletal Horde.  Every other Contrast paint was fully stocked, with extra boxes out in back, but not that specific undead colour.  Reason - it really was bought out by all the AoS players who bought the starter set and wanted to paint the Nighthaunt undead fast.

 

Now that's just anecdotal evidence, but because I look at the macro Big Picture financial figures as well, I sometimes like these Small Snapshot stories to see the full spectrum.  What this shows is that, JUST for my meta, people did buy into AoS...not for the rules but maybe for the Nighthaunt figures (disclaimer - personal bias as I do have some Nighthaunt that I use for Warcry) or the Stormcast figures (i.e. the AoS MEQ).

 

So I'm not sure about the Contrast part myself, but I fearfully agree with you on Marines 2.0, because what's scary is...Marines 2.0 wasn't even part of the hot summer release schedule when GW wants to drive people into stores.  Y'know how GW likes to release stuff right in time for schools' summer vacation?  If anything, that's the perfect time for Marines 2.0, they're the thing teenagers want to see, and they missed most of the summer window.  Instead it came out mid-August, basically 3 months ago to this day, about half of a Half-Year.  And even then that alone managed to be on par with an AoS edition release?

 

It's like I dealt with these finance guys who look see a business purely from an Excel spreadsheet and have no understanding of customers, products, etc.  You know how all Warhammer Stores are roughly half AoS, half 40k?  If what we think about Marines 2.0 is true, those types of men in grey suits would suggest something like "why have this AoS stuff?  To optimise your stores' shelfspace, you should have half 40k, half JUST MARINES."  

 

biggrin.png

 

Now Frater Erjak, you seem to be more familiar with AoS than I am (in fact I am living proof of your point, I was really turned off by AoS 2nd ed...but I really love Warcry).  But I just wanted to ask about what you said about artificially suppressing stuff, I'm not even playing devil's advocate, I'm just asking because "never ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence."  And my question to you is this:

 

From your perspective, was AoS 2nd ed mostly inadequate By Design to force players to buy future releases (i.e. malice), or was it mostly they did a lousy job with the rules knowing they can patch it later with FAQs (i.e. incompetence)?  I know it's going to be a little of both, but interested to see how you weigh it.

 

I'm going to edit my post before getting to what I speculate is the most interesting part of all this.


  • andes, Son of Carnelian, Wakkomaster and 2 others like this

gallery_57329_13636_19556.jpg


#14
N1SB

N1SB

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,100 posts

I'd be concerned with some of the language they've used in recent investor engagements, but overall for the company itself, this is positive.

 

Sister of Battle aren't even out yet... eek.gif

 

I was a little bit sleepy by the time I posted my initial thoughts, but what you said really resonated with me.

 

The language here was weird too ("no less than £X million"), but so was the timing.

 

Like you said, even Sisters haven't come out yet, which should be this month, and this is a Half-Year report...they don't close the Half-Year until the end of this month.  Why not wait until counting Sisters?  It's like they're so confident even before this comes out they're already declaring a win.

 

I don't know why, but I do know it's weird...but it's impressive performance and good news.  Like how much more good news does GW have to release?  They got a massive deal with Amazon Prime or some streaming service, and a partnership with Marvel Comics.  Whether you like it or not (I've been reading the new X-Men stuff, it's weird but pretty exciting), these will all give Warhammer way more exposure than ever before, which is a good thing.  How much more good news can we take?

 

I dunno, just musing, am going to talk to a way smarter guy than me tomorrow.


  • Felix Antipodes, Noserenda, Son of Carnelian and 1 other like this

gallery_57329_13636_19556.jpg


#15
Ishagu

Ishagu

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 15,803 posts
  • Location:Britannia, Holy Terra
  • Faction: Ultramarines
Lol around 3 years ago I bought and renovated a house, burning away most of my savings.

If I had invested that same money into GW shares I would now be sitting on a million quid.
  • N1SB and Wakkomaster like this

-~Ishagu~-


#16
Commander Dawnstar

Commander Dawnstar

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 1,087 posts
  • Location:Newcastle, United Kingdom
  • Faction: Ksi'm'yen.

What I will share is that about a week after they previewed before purchase, that's when we did the Initial Contrast Experiments by B&C thread, I went to buy them and there was specifically 1 colour which they TOTALLY sold out of: Skeletal Horde.  Every other Contrast paint was fully stocked, with extra boxes out in back, but not that specific undead colour.  Reason - it really was bought out by all the AoS players who bought the starter set and wanted to paint the Nighthaunt undead fast.

 

Stray thought, but that would seem really strange to me were it the cause given that Nighthaunt are more about ghostly whites and greens than bone.


  • Morovir likes this

gallery_48988_15465_42927.pnggallery_48988_15465_1202.pnggallery_48988_15465_21744.png


#17
Happy-inquisitor

Happy-inquisitor

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 742 posts
  • Faction: Crimson Fists

 

 

Sister of Battle aren't even out yet... eek.gif

 

I was a little bit sleepy by the time I posted my initial thoughts, but what you said really resonated with me.

 

The language here was weird too ("no less than £X million"), but so was the timing.

 

Like you said, even Sisters haven't come out yet, which should be this month, and this is a Half-Year report...they don't close the Half-Year until the end of this month.  Why not wait until counting Sisters?  It's like they're so confident even before this comes out they're already declaring a win.

 

I don't know why, but I do know it's weird...but it's impressive performance and good news.  Like how much more good news does GW have to release?  They got a massive deal with Amazon Prime or some streaming service, and a partnership with Marvel Comics.  Whether you like it or not (I've been reading the new X-Men stuff, it's weird but pretty exciting), these will all give Warhammer way more exposure than ever before, which is a good thing.  How much more good news can we take?

 

I dunno, just musing, am going to talk to a way smarter guy than me tomorrow.

 

 

 

GW do seem to do these odd statements away from their half-year results, it was mid-October last year which made even less sense.

 

As you point out we can't really ascribe these good results to any huge releases - it looks more like they are sustaining enough releases to keep the customers they are attracting interested and engaged - and of course buying stuff. Fundamentally I think it would be very hard to explain these figures without supposing that there is a sustained year on year increase in their number of customers. As the Warhammer products are all highly social I think they may be seeing some benefit from the Network Effect, or its more prosaic version of having engaged customers in the shops is more appealing to potential new customers than an empty store.

 

Still *very* happy that I picked up some shares a couple of years ago - my hobby is more than paying for itself at the moment. Only wish I had bought a lot more but I did not really have the spare cash at the time.


  • N1SB likes this

gallery_45765_12339_44045.png


#18
Charlo

Charlo

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 20,484 posts
And I for one, praise our plastic shaping overlords.
  • Dark Shepherd likes this

#19
The Spanish Inquisitor

The Spanish Inquisitor

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 246 posts
  • Location:France
  • Faction: Black Templars
When was the last time GW sold its shares ?
Does it often happens ?

I like the idea of GW paying us as shareholders to buy miniatures :)
  • N1SB and Happy-inquisitor like this

+ You will die as your weakling father died. Soulless. Honourless. Weeping. Ashamed. +

 

- Sigismund, High Marshal of the Black Templars - 


#20
sfPanzer

sfPanzer

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 18,976 posts
  • Location:Germany
  • Faction: Knights of Baal, Dal'yth Sept

> Driven not by some flagship product line big release, but by Contrast and Marines 2.0

I'm not sure that's completely true since we've seen a new Battletome in AoS about every month this year (they didn't necessarily release one each month but they've released 11 or 12 this year already and rumours talk about another one next month).

This surely has driven model sales up quite a bit too and works especially well together with Contrast as it makes starting a new army a lot more appealing.


Disclaimer:

If my posts appear rude to you, I apologize. It's not meant to be rude in any way, it's just the way folks are in my country. It's really more about being direct than being rude. I know how it's perceived in the english speaking community and I already try to tone it down but I barely notice when it's too much since it's normal for me.


So yeah, I'm really not rude it's basically just cultural differences that act against me here. Again, I apologize.

gallery_62972_10568_7658.jpgbFk9acX.pnggallery_62972_14467_40478.pnggallery_62972_14467_3819.jpggallery_62972_10568_4118.jpg


#21
Trevak Dal

Trevak Dal

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 4,311 posts
  • Location:Tennessee
  • Faction: Black Legion (Night Blades)
Man that seems really high...are they maybe goosing the stats a little?
  • N1SB likes this

"Our Turn" - Centurion Khârn.

 


#22
Marshal Rohr

Marshal Rohr

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 16,691 posts
  • Location:Georgia
  • Faction: 7th Terran Regiment
The UK is pretty tight about auditing shareholder reports. GW also doesn’t use their profit to buy their own stock as far as I’m aware. GW is big but not big enough to do the shady stuff huge companies do.

Edited by Marshal Rohr, 09 November 2019 - 01:18 PM.

  • N1SB likes this

Your opinion is important, and someone posting here probably does care what you think. You should go tell them. Remember that it really hurts to come up with an idea you care about and have no one else care. Go care about something and tell them what you think. Now. Think of what it would have meant to you when you were young.

 

+++The Iterators Guild+++

A Group for Lore Minded Hobbyists and World Building Projects

 


#23
battle captain corpus

battle captain corpus

    ++ CENTURIO COHORS ++

  • ++ MODERATI ++
  • 4,320 posts
  • Location:Southampton
  • Faction: Alai-Toc

++ Keep it on track please folks. Chatting about GW's performance and reports is a meaty topic for sure and very enjoyable. Let's keep it to that shall we.  ++

 

BCC


Capture1

 

 

-][- Bolter & Chainsword forum rules -][-
http://www.bolterand...18-forum-rules/
-][- Bolter & Chainsword posting 101 guide -][-
http://www.bolterand...chainsword-101/


#24
RapatoR

RapatoR

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 687 posts
  • Location:Liptovske Sliace or Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Faction: Alpha Legion
Ok not sure if this is off topic or not, but I got a question/speculation. Could be odd timing of Space Marines tied to the fears of Brexit? At the time it was looking like it would happen soon, and there was apparently a tight schedule, given that (by their own admission) they got some playtester feedback for IH too late.
  • N1SB likes this
"Hydra might have many heads, but it has always one tail..."

Hydra's tail, Alpha legion penal warband.

#25
Felix Antipodes

Felix Antipodes

    +FRATER DOMUS+

  • + FRATER DOMUS +
  • 624 posts
  • Location:Perth, Australia
  • Faction: Emperor's Might
snip
So I'll show you my thinking, having read through a decade of GW's annual reports. You already know they don't break down revenue by product group (some companies do, but they don't have to, it's just nice to have that info)...except for things like Black Library (which interestingly hasn't grown as fast as the rest of GW, it always hovers around the £2 million range annually.
snip

In my mind the BL lack of growth is partly their own fault, as GW rarely integrates what happens in the BL books into their own BRB and/or codexes. This makes them irrelevant to the a percentage of the general gaming population no matter how good a read they may be.

To clarify: I read a lot of BL stuff so not a rant against them.

Edited by Felix Antipodes, 10 November 2019 - 04:28 AM.

  • N1SB likes this




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users