Eldar vs Blasts

[BitsHammer]

So I did some number crunching and I sussed out a few things, but first the data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqordEmLdNKavXatHT0lCaF_Cf5TP5R-h8jn_c7Z49M/edit?usp=sharing

 

The first thing worth noting that unless a weapon was D3, it's average number of shots was the same or higher than the minimum of 3 (2D3's average is 4 shots, D6 is average 3 shots, ect), which means that against 5-10 model units the average damage we can expect is the same, excluding the rare times we're being shot at by a single D3 weapon (illustrated by the random Devastator).

 

The second was that the numbers weren't exactly devastating the to squads. Even Guardians standing in the open with no buff only lost 5 models at most, and even then they'd hardly suffer under the new morale rules, unlike old editions.

 

Now yes, there are ways to buff this shooting further, but just on a raw points comparison and thus didn't get into the weeds on all the re-rolls and double shooting and other buffs we could stack both ways because we could be here all day, and then we have to look at points and CP investments for those things as well.

 

So long story short: blasts aren't bad, but I don't think it's the death of the horde, and in some cases I'd argue the horde is better because it takes more rounds of shooting to kill it off on average.

[GrinNfool]

 

So I did some number crunching and I sussed out a few things, but first the data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqordEmLdNKavXatHT0lCaF_Cf5TP5R-h8jn_c7Z49M/edit?usp=sharing

 

The first thing worth noting that unless a weapon was D3, it's average number of shots was the same or higher than the minimum of 3 (2D3's average is 4 shots, D6 is average 3 shots, ect), which means that against 5-10 model units the average damage we can expect is the same, excluding the rare times we're being shot at by a single D3 weapon (illustrated by the random Devastator).

 

The second was that the numbers weren't exactly devastating the to squads. Even Guardians standing in the open with no buff only lost 5 models at most, and even then they'd hardly suffer under the new morale rules, unlike old editions.

 

Now yes, there are ways to buff this shooting further, but just on a raw points comparison and thus didn't get into the weeds on all the re-rolls and double shooting and other buffs we could stack both ways because we could be here all day, and then we have to look at points and CP investments for those things as well.

 

So long story short: blasts aren't bad, but I don't think it's the death of the horde, and in some cases I'd argue the horde is better because it takes more rounds of shooting to kill it off on average.

 

Er think you might have an error in your math  with how you presented the rule. 6-10 models are minimum 3 shots, that means d3 shot or 2d3 shot weapons will be 3 and 6 respectively always vs 6+ models, which is a 50% increase on our average there.  d6 weapons go from 3.5 to a 4 because now its 3 3 3 4 5 6 instead of 1 2 3 4 5 6 making it a 4 average obviously its not as good for the d6 weapons but just had to adjust your math there since you are presenting a spreadsheet you want those numbers to be accurate.

 

Edited July 18, 2020 by GrinNfool

[BitsHammer]

3 shots minimum total, not 3 shots per die:

 

Not that nowhere does it say that it is attacks per die rolled, just 3 attacks minimum for units of 6-10.

 

So no, the only mistake I made was not treating the d6 average as 4 vs 6-10 model units, but that breaks out to a fraction of a model more killed and not enough to justify the panic attacks I've seen online over blasts.

[GrinNfool]

3 shots minimum total, not 3 shots per die:

 

Not that nowhere does it say that it is attacks per die rolled, just 3 attacks minimum for units of 6-10.

 

So no, the only mistake I made was not treating the d6 average as 4 vs 6-10 model units, but that breaks out to a fraction of a model more killed and not enough to justify the panic attacks I've seen online over blasts.

agree to disagree then guess there will be an FAQ on it.  Not picking a fight lol just trying to help but I shall avoid you in the future good sir have a good one.

[BitsHammer]

The way I read it is all dice because: a. dice is plural so encapsulates all dice rolled totally to less than 3, and b. reading as each die means that the Thunderfire cannon gets 12 shots against units of 6+ models and that does not spund right. Edited July 18, 2020 by Fulkes

[MasterAO]

The rule doesn't mention per die, only per weapon, so RAW it a minimum of three hits vs a unit of 6-10 models. It even specifies the dice rolled (dice is plural) is less than three attacks, it is to count as three attacks.

[BitsHammer]

The rule doesn't mention per die, only per weapon, so RAW it a minimum of three hits vs a unit of 6-10 models. It even specifies the dice rolled (dice is plural) is less than three attacks, it is to count as three attacks.

Exactly. I'm not sure where the "per die" interpretation sprang up from, but I feel like it's a big reason people are over estimating how much impact blast weapons have on the game.

[Dulahan]

Honestly, I'm just waiting for a horde army to win a big Grand Tournament or something because of the common 'wisdom' that "Hordes are dead!" meaning people aren't taking nearly the anti-horde stuff they should, and how hordes actually do have a big advantage in scoring points.  And probably more likely to survive to begin with.

 

Still not a playstyle I enjoy, and hate that Eldar sometimes have to play like a Horde army particularly.  But yeah, I'm expecting hordes aren't nearly as dead as people think.

[BitsHammer]

I went back after some feedback on Reddit, fixed some math, expanded the scope of the units being looked at and the weapons used, and even color coded some stuff for comparisons:

 

This thread is a follow up to the one I started previously about Eldar and Blast weapons ( https://www.reddit.com/r/WarhammerCompetitive/comments/htb9qp/eldar_vs_blasts/ ).

Long story short so you don't need to read the old thread: some things were pointed out about the math which have been corrected (as was my oversight on Wyverns re-rolling wounds), and I've expanded the target units to include MSU Ork Boyz and Grots as well as both units maxed out to cover some more horde profiles so people can get a look at how this impacts units who don't live with a T3 profile.

 

The shooting profiles have also been expanded, plasma cannon devastators are now a whole unit to illustrate D3 weapons being employed in a more realistic manner against units of all sizes, and I've also added in 6 new shooting units: Tactical Marines with bolters, Primaris with Bolt Rifles, Guardsman. The Marines come in both MSU and 10 Astartes sized units, and the Guard will be shooting normally, and while buffed with FRFSRF (the points cost for the buffing officer being added in for the bottom chart). This is to highlight the efficeincy of regular units shooting hordes vs blasts to give a better picture of where blasts fall into the mix.

 

I do want to say that all math was done using an 8th edition calculator (http://40k.ghostlords.com/dice/ ) as no 9th edition ones currently exist, and I'll be honest I'm not going to spend weeks trying to make one in excel to get an idea about this topic, so all average attack numbers with D6 weapons were done manually for 6-10 man units (as well as the Basalisk due to it's "roll 2D6 and take the highest" rule for attacks), and the Dire Avengers saves are all done on the basis of the worst save to smooth things out when dealing with the mixed profile nature of the unit.

 

Finally the updated data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uSQOcXYIyX7xh1Bzpf2zQRZSrvpOaI2rpcG2JN6hH1o/edit?usp=sharing

So, after crunching, and re-crunching all the numbers, what do I think?

 

Well a couple of things: First there was only one instance of a single blast weapon wiping out half a squad on average, and it was against an MSU squad of Dire Avengers. To be fair, it was a Wyvern which averages 12 shots, so that's probably not too much of a shock.

 

Second, multiple blast weapons being fired at a target (such as the Devastators) was -far- more effective than any single blast weapon (or at least the ones I've seen touted more as the ones to be concerned about), and units like Marines and Guard were far more effective at dealing out wounds just by getting into rapid fire range than blast weapons against most targets. I could probably test out a no-rapid fire option for the units as well, but even if they're not as good we still have unbuffed squads doing more damage by getting close, something to be concerned about with smaller tables since that becomes far easier for them to do.

 

In actual game play I'd likely combine options (for example, a Whirlwind and an Intercessor squad at half range) to inflict the most casualties. Blasts to soften hordes (or even mid-sized units) first, followed by regular small arms to finish the job. This is because blasts are more effective against undamaged units, while the small arms don't care as much and can finish the job more efficiently.

 

As for list building, I'd have to say in most cases large units actually benefit you more. You become more resistant to any single shooting attack, and your buffs become more effective (especially important if your army doesn't rely on auras for your buffs, like Craftworlds who get most of their buffs via psychic powers and stratagems). The downside of course is debuffs are more efficient, and you give up slightly more casualties to any single blast weapon, or a whole lot more against units with multiple D3 blast weapons as they can keep getting the max number of attacks for a lot longer.

 

Long and short of it is that no individual blast weapon is going to break a horde, just give up slightly more casualties on average, and if your army leans into hordes get some games in with them before you decide to shelf the horde and go MSU, or even mid-sized units.

[brother_b]

My hot take: 

 

Imperial Guard infantry + orders are waaaaay too efficient.

[BitsHammer]

My hot take:

 

Imperial Guard infantry + orders are waaaaay too efficient.

Apparently I over estimated by 4 shots since the SGT can't take a lasgun for some reason, so it's not quite that bad, but with 36 shots easy they can still drop a lot of things.