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GW's business model - the future and 3D printing


Captain Idaho

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***Disclaimer - this is not a "bash GW" thread so please keep to yourself any sort of flame fest against them. Obviously make relevant points where necessary but let's not focus on it on talking about the, especially as I suspect there should be few relevant points to make on this topic.***

 

As time has gone on, I've noticed the quality and availability of 3D printers has increased immensely, which inevitably will change the way a miniatures based company of all sectors will have to operate to survive or thrive.

 

GW makes models that are top quality and have popular support at the moment, indeed to the extent that profits have ballooned in recent years. So GW have nothing to fear right?

 

Well not quite actually. Home owned resin printers right now are producing faultless copies and entirely new designs that stand alongside models GW models without shame. Indeed a friend of mine has a brilliant printer for several hundred pounds that has seen his armies swell with models just as detailed as an army of GW only products. I even have a gift of one such model that is independently designed and fits into a HH army seamlessly.

 

Check the model out here for an example of the quality you can come out with now[/].

 

Where am I going with this? Well it's clear that right now GW is doing well. Better than well, financially speaking. Ask again in 10 years, or 20 and it might be a different story. Folk are getting superior domestic 3D printers ALL THE TIME and the quality and cost is only going to come down, thus pushing up the availability.

 

Games Workshop cannot compete indefinitely with the whole consumer base, so where does that leave them?

 

I think GW know this. Look at their drive to produce toys, IP expansions into video games and other venues like Marvel, collectibles, streaming services... this is GW looking to get out of the miniatures market sooner rather than when it's too late.

 

Sounds extreme and a knee jerk reaction would be to resist it, but common sense points to all these factors when you regard them objectively.

 

I firmly believe that GW will eventually move into a market when they sell miniatures as a STL file for a 3D printer, game rules if we're lucky then maintain an IP renting system to make their money in partnership with toy makers, collectibles and streaming.

 

If we're lucky we'll continue to get a gaming department that focuses on balanced games and selling us source material. In many ways, without a need to produce models to make money, the game would likely be more stable, balanced and less probe to power creep that way anyway. The extreme and background ripping events would likely be more in line with the greater feel and culture of things like 40K instead of large departures in a deus ex machina manner that we've been given since 8th edition.

 

I'm happy to hear the alternative position especially if it brings to the table an angle that isn't mentioned or considered previously.

 

So what do you think about all this? What time frame would you put on it? Have you enjoyed having a new 3D printer yet? I'd like to hear from you too!

Edited by Captain Idaho
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I had a similar thought, with similar leanings, discussion here => Would you use a GW type version of Hero Forge

I see them selling models they themselves have printed before they sell STLs, as discussed above. This could very well lead into a print on demand type bits service, which every and and his dog will be ALL over. I put the Hero Forge thing or bitz service in 5-7 years.

Before the sell STL's I think one of the things they will sell commercially will be their own brand of gaming resin for home printers, they have the money and motivation to develop a strong, high detail resin, that doesn't shatter when dropped (yes, you can get this now, but it involves usually mixing different resins yourself). I'd personally put STLs inside of 10 years, but not by much.

I have both a FDM Ender 3, and a Anycubic Mono. With good, dialed in settings, the FDM can get usable tabletop models, but you're looking @ 12-18hrs per model. With the Mono, I can fit 50 shoulderpads for 1.5hrs, or 10 "troops" @ 3.5hrs, for significantly increased quality.

I couldn't go back to not having a 3D printer, without it I wouldn't be able to make things like this large scale Battle Barge,

gallery_48988_16869_74133.jpg

Edited by Grotsmasha
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The rise of 3D printing and it's inevitable impact on GW is something I've talked about and pondered for quite some time now. It's gotten to the stage where it's no longer in the grim darkness of the far future* and with GW's pivot to other sources of income (as you've mentioned - and the beginning stages of their efforts to address this) I think it's a great time to discuss it.

 

So - 3D printers. Like many new technologies they've gone up in quality and down in price over time. I don't recall the exact quote about personal computers that turned out 100% wrong but yes, a 3D printer will become as commonplace as a computer in the home is now. It's no longer necessary to have the skills or knowledge to design things to print, there is a thriving business of other people doing it for you. Eventually you'll be able to visit websites and pay to download a specific part you need - a broken bit of a household appliance is a good and well used example - but of course we are talking 40K and plastic models.

 

Considering selling models is a hefty portion of GW's business this is a big deal. We are absolutely seeing GW's attempts to broaden their portfolio right now with comics, a streaming service, action figures and a renewed push into video games. Time will tell how successful that will be, but the idea of GW selling STLs and people printing the models at home does raise some questions. How will it work? It will depend on the method of delivery I expect they'll have some kind of system but how will it operate?

 

Buy some models and be able to print them only once? What if the print fails? Do you buy some models and have them forever? What's to stop you just printing a load for your mates? Do GW still try and keep the manufacture to themselves and just print to sell as people order them? That will have to fight with people scanning models or just using counts-as anyway.

 

There will probably be some sort of constant online connection from your printing setup and the vendor. There are a lot of companies that make good money from spares and they're going to want to ring-fence any printing of parts for their products if they can. It won't be just GW doing this, so however this will work is going to be thrashed out with trial and error - the experience of seeing what works and what they can get away with. I daresay there will be websites of the :pirate: variety selling 'unofficial' items just as there exist now.

 

Interesting stuff! We're in the early stages of what will become a large industry of 3D printing file vendor websites and it's difficult to know how it will shake out right now. I'm gonna stop talking as this is a topic I like to delve into and I already feel I've waffled on for too long :sweat:

 

*not sorry!

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I think you are right with the reasoning behind their current expansion into any market possible. They know that as a primarily miniature production company their time is limited, that's why they 'need' to become a more well known brand, if not a 'household brand'. 

 

I would say they would still sell mini's as some would just prefer to buy figures instead of 3D printing, but not if the costs outweighed the income.

 

(I've been beaten to the punch) I'd say for selling STL files, there would be a hurdle with stopping people from just printing multiple copies. Even with some kind of protection that restricts copies, somebody will get around it, and once it's out... Why bother paying? 

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Before the sell STL's I think one of the things they will sell commercially will be their own brand of gaming resin for home printers, they have the money and motivation to develop a strong, high detail resin, that doesn't shatter when dropped (yes, you can get this now, but it involves usually mixing different resins yourself).

That's a great point! Print your own GW models but use official GW resin - buy now for only 5x the price of a non-branded equivalent :laugh.: Honestly there are many ways of still profiting of 3D printing, some of them might not even be thought of yet. We're seeing the birth of an industry - who knows how it's going to change the world?

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I was actually considering this last night; at the moment I don't have the space for a 3d printer and the associated equipment - but in 3-5 years, I will. And I think by then what is now a 'high end', better quality printer, will be at the price levels of the more affordable ones now. So, I'll be in a position to print, and I think over the next few years more and more of GW's customer base will be in the same place.

 

At which point, I guess you could hypothesise that GW could potentially see their 'physical' sales decline. If this is the case, they absolutely need to start selling STLs of their models - and as Grotsmasha says, likely their own brand of resin for it.

 

So when I'm able, I think I'd welcome being able to buy files for GW's models and print them myself. If they've any sense, they'll start introducing this in within 3-5 years.

 

Then who knows - maybe in another 20 years time, they'll be 99% file based, while they still manufacture some models, but sell those directly?

 

I guess the only question mark is how they continue to model the hobby to 'new blood' - I doubt the average 12 year old will have access to a printer, in which case they'll need to buy their models as kits from GW.

 

Unless, 3d printers become as common in the majority of households as most smart devices (phone, tablets) are now..?

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It's also possible they'll end up like DnD Wizards of the Coast and just be a Source Book only company, with perhaps the IP renting etc into other places. Oh and maybe self enclosed board games and one off prints too.

 

Interesting points made.

 

One I didn't think of was the "hobby store" aspect and the visibility it brings. How do new people get into the games outside digital products like video games otherwise?

Edited by Captain Idaho
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This could be confirmation bias as diversifying their range, capitalising on the IP etc is also just good business practice and something they should have done sooner. (I suspect theyre purposefully trying to create IP to exploit with Warhammer Crime)

 

Their merch game especially was way too slow for a long time.

 

There is though the argument that their ever increasing prices are driving people towards 3d printing

 

That said I dont think theyre worried about 3d printing for a good while yet. Its a bit like how the casual scene/player/kid accounts for 90% or more of their sales. Youd want to be fairly far in to get a 3d printer and you have to get fairly far in first. I dont think enough people will have the foresight to get a 3d printer, well until they become much much cheaper and models get much too expensive

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GW needed to diversify out of minis mostly because it’s a niche market and I don’t see that miniature war gaming market significantly growing. I’m sure 3D printing options is accelerating that shift in their business model.

 

I don’t plan on buying a 3D printer, but I will buy what I deem as great minis. I don’t care who designs or makes them, let the market decide who survives.

 

I’m thinking the next few years will see 3D printing remain a balkanized cottage industry of individual or small group designers. As the costs diminish and quality increases there’s the chance of specialized companies growing, but as I said earlier I think the miniature gaming market will continue to shrink or rather not grow to support the current GW business model

Edited by The Blood Raven
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This could be confirmation bias as diversifying their range, capitalising on the IP etc is also just good business practice and something they should have done sooner. (I suspect theyre purposefully trying to create IP to exploit with Warhammer Crime)

 

Their merch game especially was way too slow for a long time.

 

There is though the argument that their ever increasing prices are driving people towards 3d printing

 

That said I dont think theyre worried about 3d printing for a good while yet. Its a bit like how the casual scene/player/kid accounts for 90% or more of their sales. Youd want to be fairly far in to get a 3d printer and you have to get fairly far in first. I dont think enough people will have the foresight to get a 3d printer, well until they become much much cheaper and models get much too expensive

 

 

For me you are 100% spot on here. They've done nothing with there own IP properly for years and only now they're beginning to exploit it properly as any other big company does and would. Why its taken them the best part of 30 years to offer a proper range of merchandise I don't know! It seems like such an obvious step for them they have all this artwork and so many people so attached to there factions and they didn't think we'd want T-shirts?

 

I think there constant yearly price rises will drive people towards 3d printing and whilst they may not be worried yet in 5 years time they have to be. The quality of the printers gets better every 6 months and the sculpts available for printing are phenomenal. But I personally don't see a way other than GW offering an instore printing service how they can profit from it. If they sell there own resin there are companies who already do it now that will probably be cheaper and of a better quality. Selling the STL files for me makes no sense. You'd have no control over how they are used after someone has bought it. There would be nothing stopping me buying an STL for Primaris intercessors and just printing as many as not only I want but for all the people in my gaming group too. Plus once its out in the public you can guarantee it'll be pirated and available for free somewhere on the web.

 

Idaho - your point about going the way of wizards of the west coast and just offering rules maybe makes the most sense. They could then focus on rules and maybe sell the IP rights to create sculpts to other studios and completely remove themselves from the design and manufacturer of models.

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I don't agree with a lot of people on this thread, I see most of GW's moves as trying to push the tide back on 3d printing. Their changes to the IP guidelines and the increase of take downs on you tube and discord shows they are trying to fight not embrace 3d printing. And with their changes to their tournament rules all but banning 3d printed objects they are doing all they can to discourage their use in the hobby. When I started playing 40k squads could be loaded out dozens of ways and boxes came with a huge variety of parts(mostly) and a solid variety of poses. 3d printing is going to replace a lot of customizing, but its not going to replace plastic models. Resin allows a lot of customizing in the slicing and building programs, but once its made its pretty much that way terminally. I see a space for GW to be able to put out customizable plastic kits that are more easily converted than resin or detailed than FDM. And for durability plastic is still superior too, even to ABS like resin. They have a much better crush durability, but dont hold up to bounces, and can still crack if you try and drill them to pin them after printing as well. I love my little Mars 2, but it doesn't replace the joy of hacking apart a space marine sprue with some green stuff to make something truly unique.

 

In the end I think there is room for both in the market. Even if its cheap some people don't/won't have space for a printer at home along with all the other 40k stuff, are allergic to the resin, not tech savvy, ect there will always be a market for GW to keep making plastic. If their prices come down it will draw people on the margins back to buying GW for the ease instead of putting in work to get the cheaper resin option. GW should diversify, but they need to learn to live with the future and 3d printing instead of going the Luddite route and pretend they can ban something that is already out in the open.

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I see a potential compromise where they maintain their current business model, but will sell files that they have no intentions of manufacturing, or they could supplement their big ticket items such as the Warlord. For example, a Warlord with all necessary parts is $3000AU+, now what if they were to sell the files for ~$300AU? Would they sell 10x more? Once they take out all of the manufacturing, QC, Mold Maintenance / Replacement, Handling, Postage costs, that's 99% profit right?

Things that could fit in to this category Titans, Manta, Mastadon, Stormbird, Thunderhawk, you get the drift.

 

In regards to GW's limitation of 3D printing in Tournaments, there's actually a very good reason that I haven't seen anyone mention yet, and that is scale. Yes you can model for advantage, but with traditional models it's a little more obvious, but what if you're army is printed at 105%, or 95% scale? It wouldn't be immediately obvious, and could give unfair advantage, especially in a tournament setting.

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I don't see GW ever selling STL files. They fear piracy so much that they have stopped selling digital books (a stupid decision, imho, but that's a whole different topic). 
Piracy of official STL files would be inevitable and rampant, no matter how many DRM or similar stuff they might try to invent. 

They also wouldn't be competitive with independent modelers. Their overhead costs are too high to be covered by STL revenues (which have to be competitive in price with independent ones, of course). 

I don't even see GW stopping their current production of plastic models. Not everyone will have a 3D printers, for many reasons, and some people still prefer working with plastic. I have a 3D printer, I love it and still I buy some plastic kits. Both have their place in this hobby. 

 

 

What I can imagine is GW trying to combat the 3D printing phenomenon in a few different ways:

1) go full e-sports: digital rules distributed for free, proper rebalancing and rules writing approach, frequent updates in order to define competitive "seasons", organize an official tournament circuit with massive events and monetary prizes. Basically everything e-sports like. This would serve as a way to have a firm control over (at least) a portion of the playerbase, as only official models would be allowed at official tournaments (right now the vast majority of events are independent and TOs don't care if you 3D print or recast your whole army).

Likelihood: low. 40K might not work as an e-sport as games are too long, not interesting enough compared to videogames and the digital rules thing would be inevitable in order to go down this route. But we know how much GW likes its books revenues. Without that, 40K as an e-sport is doomed to fail. Rules are incredibly bloated right now, just one year into the edition, and balance is nowhere to be seen. The 600 players LGT final was called mid first turn, just to name the most recent example...

 

2) business as usual, pretending that 3D printing does not exist. For a while it might work, as a good portion of the community lives and breathes inside GW world and does not look around. But as more people get into 3D printing, those hobbyists that knew nothing else might get in contact with this new technology and convert into printer maniacs. It happens over time, the speed of this will determine how profitable GW will be of course. 
Likelihood: medium-to-high. Corporations do not like change, so ignoring the issue and focusing on the next quarter's profits might be the preferred choice for GW's upper management. In the long run we are all dead, right?

 

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I'm really not very good at predicting things, so I won't even try, however, I will say that I don't own a 3D printer, and have no intention of buying one because:

  • The time it takes to "print" something
  • Prints need a greater amount of clean-up than purchased models in terms of washing, removing supports, curing, etc
  • The print quality from FDM printers that I've seen just isn't there (visible layer lines in every print I've seen).
  • Resin printers are better, with some of the very recent ones reaching the print quality of laser-based industrial units I played with ~15 years ago, but the requirement to further cure a print with UV is a pain.
  • Resin is not the nicest material to work with (toxicity, etc)
  • I simply don't have space for one (I live somewhere where £375,000 buys you a 55m2 property).

Obviously, other people's preferences and situation will differ. :)

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Print time is usually not an issue unless you're in a rush to get something done NOW. I watched a YouTube vid where a guy printed 1000 points of non-GW models in 24 hours with an Anycubic Photon S that has a pretty small print volume as those go. 

 

The clean up can be... tedious, but once you get the hang of it, it goes quickly. Curing? I drop the prints into an empty spaghetti jar full of water and set it in the sun for a few minutes. 

 

True, resin isn't the nicest material to work with, but whether it's UV cured or two-part resin from FW, they're both potential health risks. But so is breathing in the plastic dust from sanding or filing regular minis. 

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Some hobbyists build their own scenery, others do conversions. Most simply buy the kits they like and will never print their own models, and cost or value are not the biggest factors in their decision making process.

 

You can paint your own models, but that doesn't put commission artists out of business.

 

You can cook your own meals, but there are still restaurants in every town and city.

 

You can print anything on paper, but Pokemon and Magic cards are becoming more popular and valuable then ever.

 

3D printing will not be a threat to GW, beyond some limited impact in certain ways.

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3D printing will probably be a positive for GW in that it's going to hurt just about every other minature/wargaming company far more than it will them.

 

GW fans, by enlarge, have enormous brand loyalty, whether that's genuinely only wishing to buy Citadel products or simply because they don't know that alternatives exist. How often do you see people only requesting guides for Citadel paints, or colour matching with Citadel and swearing off Vallejo or AP? 

 

There's also convenience to factor in. The airbrush is a good comparison here. Most people would much rather keep buying £12 rattle cans every time their undercoat runs out than buy an airbrush, even though it's cheaper longer term and would allow them to perform plenty of other, simple-to-learn techniques, and in most cases that's because they don't want to pay the upfront cost and then set it up. I suspect 3D printers are going to be very similar to airbrushes in that respect - the vast majority of people will prefer the convenience of going into a store/online shop and just having their kits delivered on the sprue that way, even if long-term 3D printing would be far cheaper.

 

You also tend to find that people who play non-GW games don't have the same 'loyalty' insofar as they don't typically mind using unofficial models, buying from different places, using different brands and are just generally exposed to far more products that exist outside of the GW/Citadel eco-sphere than GW deliberately cultivate. Even if 3D printing becomes more common, it's still going to be a minority and GW can likely bite the bullet and absorb those costs (or just raise prices, not like it's seemingly hurt them). Compare that with just about every other wargaming company, who're working on far tighter margins with smaller fanbases who're far more easily harmed by outside factors.

Edited by Lord Marshal
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***Disclaimer - this is not a "bash GW" thread so please keep to yourself any sort of flame fest against them. Obviously make relevant points where necessary but let's not focus on it on talking about the, especially as I suspect there should be few relevant points to make on this topic.***

 

As time has gone on, I've noticed the quality and availability of 3D printers has increased immensely, which inevitably will change the way a miniatures based company of all sectors will have to operate to survive or thrive.

 

GW makes models that are top quality and have popular support at the moment, indeed to the extent that profits have ballooned in recent years. So GW have nothing to fear right?

 

Well not quite actually. Home owned resin printers right now are producing faultless copies and entirely new designs that stand alongside models GW models without shame. Indeed a friend of mine has a brilliant printer for several hundred pounds that has seen his armies swell with models just as detailed as an army of GW only products. I even have a gift of one such model that is independently designed and fits into a HH army seamlessly.

 

Check the model out here for an example of the quality you can come out with now[/].

 

Where am I going with this? Well it's clear that right now GW is doing well. Better than well, financially speaking. Ask again in 10 years, or 20 and it might be a different story. Folk are getting superior domestic 3D printers ALL THE TIME and the quality and cost is only going to come down, thus pushing up the availability.

 

Games Workshop cannot compete indefinitely with the whole consumer base, so where does that leave them?

 

I think GW know this. Look at their drive to produce toys, IP expansions into video games and other venues like Marvel, collectibles, streaming services... this is GW looking to get out of the miniatures market sooner rather than when it's too late.

 

Sounds extreme and a knee jerk reaction would be to resist it, but common sense points to all these factors when you regard them objectively.

 

I firmly believe that GW will eventually move into a market when they sell miniatures as a STL file for a 3D printer, game rules if we're lucky then maintain an IP renting system to make their money in partnership with toy makers, collectibles and streaming.

 

If we're lucky we'll continue to get a gaming department that focuses on balanced games and selling us source material. In many ways, without a need to produce models to make money, the game would likely be more stable, balanced and less probe to power creep that way anyway. The extreme and background ripping events would likely be more in line with the greater feel and culture of things like 40K instead of large departures in a deus ex machina manner that we've been given since 8th edition.

 

I'm happy to hear the alternative position especially if it brings to the table an angle that isn't mentioned or considered previously.

 

So what do you think about all this? What time frame would you put on it? Have you enjoyed having a new 3D printer yet? I'd like to hear from you too!

 

First a direct response: your post seems to think that GW's business model is either/ or.

 

It isn't. GW's business model is total, cross-platform, multi-media domination.

 

Making toys and video games in no way what so ever means less models. It actually means more. Toys are designed to be the gateway drug that will create a model customer (and also to cater to the collector market).

 

Will they eventually sell STL files? Yep. And their own resin (and/ or plastic). They'll probably sell their own printers too. In no way will this diminish the number of models they make and sell. Because 3d printers aren't like phones, computers or the Internet. Yes, they are becoming more common, getting better and getting cheaper, but they will always be an item that only appeals to a certain type of person.

 

Saying that 3d printers will replace premade models is like expecting grocery stores to put all restaurants out of business. Think about it: you can make your own cheaper, healthier, and/ or better. But nobody thinks restaurants are going anywhere. Because convenience is always going to be worth paying for to some people. Heck, some players pay other people to build and paint their armies- you think those dudes are actually going to want to print their own models?

 

Thoughts on 3d printing in general:

 

1/ I won't suddenly start liking working with resin just because I print the models myself. For me, resin sucks and plastic rules. Period. I know others will disagree, and that's okay- it's a matter of preference. And of course, plastic printers do exist.

 

2/ Consistency is an issue for the STL market right now. In order to get a collection of a size that some players want, they'd need STL's from multiple sources. Minute differences in scale and aesthetic between those various manufacturers/ designers will not matter to some of us- there's a really strong DIY spirit among some players, and those folks will overlook minor inconsistencies since they derive so much joy from the the artistic process. Obviously, official GW STL's would solve consistency issues. 

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Some hobbyists build their own scenery, others do conversions. Most simply buy the kits they like and will never print their own models, and cost or value are not the biggest factors in their decision making process.

 

You can paint your own models, but that doesn't put commission artists out of business.

 

You can cook your own meals, but there are still restaurants in every town and city.

 

You can print anything on paper, but Pokemon and Magic cards are becoming more popular and valuable then ever.

 

3D printing will not be a threat to GW, beyond some limited impact in certain ways.

ALL of this, the examples go on, furniture, PCs, etc.

 

I do however think GW will acknowledge the market eventually with their own STL service of sorts. Likely they're waiting for a time when you print direct from a Web platform rather than downloading files, that way they can at least tie the access to the individual account.

 

Rik

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Will the business model change as the world and technology changes; absolutely, and Gw are well aware that things are changing. Will Gw stop making miniatures in my lifetime; no. Not unless plastic suddenly becomes either banned or a rare substance. There will always be a large group of people who like to make things with their hands instead of pushing a button on a printer.

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A part of me feels that if i ever did want to use 3D printers, i'd be doing at least partly to spite Games Workshop.

 

How :cuss up is that?

 

Why, I don't like the actions, they've taken. There's a long boring list that you've probably all heard before

 

Wasn't there a time when GW used to encourage people to make their own minis?

Edited by Grotsmasha
Swear dodge removed
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First a direct response: your post seems to think that GW's business model is either/ or. It isn't.

 

*snip*

 

 

I didn't mean to give the impression I thought it is an either/or situation, rather GW is moving towards a situation where they can't make the money off of models to make.

 

Yes working with Resin isn't as nice as plastic, but there are plastic printers too and they're getting better as well.

 

I don't think the comparison between groceries and restaurants and a potential house hold item that will widespread are quite accurate but yes there is a little bit of cross over. I wouldn't put it past GW to release "luxury miniatures" in splash releases.

 

The question is at what level of releases they will concentrate on. It's possible they'll release a handful a year as collectors items.

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A part of me feels that if i ever did want to use 3D printers, i'd be doing at least partly to spite Games Workshop.

 

How :cuss up is that?

 

Why, I don't like the actions, they've taken. There's a long boring list that you've probably all heard before

 

Wasn't there a time when GW used to encourage people to make their own minis?

837 years ago when GW was 3 people in a shed,

 

They are a huge corporation now, time to stop carping on about the Ye Olden days. If you despise them so much, go somewhere else. Plenty of competition now,

Edited by Grotsmasha
Quote of removed content, Swear dodge removed
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