N1SB

I expected GW's Full-Year Financial Report to come out later this week, they released it the NEXT day. Gimme a break, GW. +++ 1st Impressions: TOP-LINE RESULTS +++ Core revenue means GW's own stuff: miniatures, games, paints, etc. Licensing revenue means royalties from video games...like SPACE MARINE II (I colour-coded it to be like a Balance Dataslate, because it's actually really efficient.) BOTH of the following are true. 1st, it IS another GW peak. 2nd, it is ALSO a slight plateauing off from an exceptional year. Last year was the release of the video game Space Marine II. Give you a comparison. Street Fighter 6 sold 7 million copies. It's about to take centre-stage in the Esports World Cup tomorrow. A film with DC/WWE/podcast stars is coming. Space Marine II sold almost double that, now at 12 million units. Space Marine II didn't just bring licensing revenue (which is awesome because it's like Mortal Wounds; there's no costs like there's no cover saves, it goes through as sheer profit like sheer damage), but it unlocked a new wave of 1st time Hobbyists; they've heard of 40k, but now want to act on it. It really wasn't going to repeat until maybe a Space Marine III. I hope but am unsure it can repeat even with Total War:hammer 40k tbh. +++ 1st Impressions: Growth In the Same Place, Just Less So +++ In my initial post, I mentioned 30k wasn't as much as hero as FLGSs/3rd parties, known as "Trade", at +25.2%. That Trade channel dropped to 17.2% stretched out the whole year. The other "Channels" (GW's own) also fell. Question for you guys pls: what happened in the 2nd half of the year? Starting December to May. Did we all wait for 11th ed? +++ 1st Impressions: Pricing Update Red Flag Lowered...for NOW +++ Good news is there probably won't be another pricing update this year. Bad news is it's 'cos they ALREADY overcharged/over-cut corners. TL;DR is - GW operated as if the U.S. tariffs were real and adjusted their business to fit. Even though they got overturned, they think they'll be back. GW hovers at a core gross margin of 70%: $100's worth of minis/paints/books in a haul averages out to costing GW $30 to make. They fight hard for each FRACTION of a percent, have like 10 annual projects that shave off like 0.1% each...which gets cancelled out by like a 1% increase in Covid-related costs. U.S. tariffs are 10% for U.K. goods. We found they're about 18% of GW's sales. That's the 1.8% in the initial post, from their Half-Year results in JANUARY 2026. Because tariffs are charged "over the rails" (actually a technical term, like the ship's railing so you don't fall over). For a company that is sweating every 0.1% here, 0.1% there, overnight they hard to deal with a 1.8% change. GW was already planning things like its pricing updates, shown here as the 0.2% "price rises", that took effect in October 2025. This whopping change to cost of good sold is an unprecedented 1.6%. Cost of goods sold can EXACTLY be a downgraded Drop Pod and Baneblade with missing parts. I've only seen it at like 0.1% efficiency increases before. (Technically tariffs go into a cost of goods sold figure, but people can separate it out for clarity, they're not fudging numbers. It's not like Power Levels.) The U.S. Supreme Court "struck down" those U.S. tariffs in FEBRUARY 2026, but it's like GW was already planning around them. Had the U.S. Supreme Court NOT "struck down" those U.S. tariffs, that'd be 71.1% - 1.8% = 69.3%, a little bit lower than what they were last year. I lay this out before you hear some YouTuber say this is GW "greedflation". "Greedflation" WOULD be if GW dramatically increased prices over their costs. But they show they were technically targeting that 10% the U.S. government charge 18% of our Fraters, that the rest of us are fronting money to help. Warhammer example - the tariffs are like when a Balance Dataslate just screwed your army over by making your best unit go overpoints, so you try to cut almost EXACTLY the points from somewhere else so you can still play with a legal list, but it never quite equates...and you're waiting for the NEXT nerf. (And that's how I ended up with a Royal Warden as my HQ for my Triple C'tan list.) Btw, it's not like GW even has all the money back yet. There's a mechanism where you have to "sue" a specific U.S. department to stake your claim. Oh and if GW does another pricing update in lieu of this, and it's not, say, due to rising energy/oil-related byproducts like plastic, I WILL call greedflation. Now I go to bed! A bit angry!

Hey, this is another thing I learned from Timperial Guard, who had worked in plastic injection moulding. So GW miniatures are very detailed. He pointed out to capture that level of detail, they need some extra high-grade die-cast mold, something like that. Those last (effectively) forever, like to have that granularity of detail, you have to have a very strong mold. So yeah, they could keep churning out those models if they wanted to, they don't even wear down.

Oh man, you're right, I misread that totally, but now I'm also wondering how that 6%ish added would lead to a 25.2% increase, y'know? I know the guy who was the Trade Accounts guy in Hong Kong, one of the locales listed, but he left about a year or so ago. They seem to have a whole new, and I guess better, system.

1st Update: it came out maybe hours ago, I (and apparently Brother Waaagh)'ve been reading it since: https://assets.ctfassets.net/ost7hseic9hc/6nI9MLA7hoRBfs2OA1oE5R/5b0fef99d81995ba1cdf872887f6cbe6/Results_Statement_2025-26_FINAL_v2.pdf How time flies. We've broken down GW's financials for a decade now, when GW hockey-sticked up around 8th ed 40k's launch. As always, we enter with a mindset of "you oughta know where your food comes from" as a U.S. Midwestern farmer once told me. Keep in mind this report measures from the time of Horus Heresy 3.0 to JUST BEFORE 40k 11th ed. I haven't even played 11th ed yet. PREVIEW: we are using their last Half-Yearly Report as an indicator, I will ADD NEW POSTS once the Full-Year report comes out. +++ Preview: TOP-LINE RESULTS +++ You always hear about "the bottom line", meaning (operating) profit, because corporations "maximise profit," "line must go up," etc. While it's true the spice must flow because the economy is built on having some forward motion, "top-line", or revenue, is more interesting to us as a proxy to the popularity of The Hobby. It's a measure of people x how much they're willing to spend...because they have spent it, the ultimate test. We can preview the Full-Year results from the Half-Year results: Core revenue means GW's own stuff: miniatures, games, paints, etc. Licensing revenue means royalties from video games and JoyToys, etc., NOT GW's own stuff FORECAST: GW's Full Year revenue should be around £700 million, a bit more than 2x GW's Half Year, because there's always a Christmas bump. To compare, Magic: the Gathering annual revenue is $1.72 BILLION, almost double GW. WotC prints money, and props up all of its parent, Hasbro. Fun Fact: unless you get a Space Marine II or something, licensing revenue is consistently around 5% of GW's core revenue. It's like if The Hobby itself is in good shape, video game companies will license 40k. Here, the horse is leading the cart: if GW wants to grow its licensing revenue, they should focus on popularising its OWN offerings (by making better miniatures, games, stories, etc.), then the licensees will come. This year was a Horus Heresy launch year, so was HH 3.0 the "hero" that drove core revenue growth? Turns out it was something different... +++ Preview: Where Was the Growth, Pricing Update Red Flag +++ The following is from the Half-Year report, and it'll be interesting to see how much it'll change by Full-Year, will update: Trade means 3rd party sellers like Friendly Local Gaming Stores or non-GW online stores Retail means Warhammer Stores Online means GW's own online store So if it was a product (or general growth) that drove sales, you'd see the same growth across sales channels, because it's the same product everywhere. So if HH 3.0 was really that popular, you'd see it drive sales in Trade (like FLGSs), Retail (Warhammer Stores) and Online (warhammer.com) all around the same level. Instead, we saw Trade grow by +25% while only around 5% (basically just inflation) elsewhere. I expect an explanation from the Half-Year report: Welp, thank you for the explanation, Miss Group Financial Director! GW increased 3rd party Trade vendors BY 500 to 8,600 (thx Rusted Boltgun for correcting me), but now I wonder how does that about 6% increase translate to 25.2%? Like I guess existing trade outlets might be buying much more, but that seems off, doesn't it? I guess THIS is a factor of Warhammer's popularity from other sources, like Space Marine II or Amazon shows. Here it's a bit of the cart leading the horse. For those that said video games/streaming will drive The Hobby, it turns out the main thing they drove is 3rd parties to carry more Warhammer products. The thing we're watching for is the core gross margin. GW expects a core gross margin of 70%: you buy $100 of stuff, it cost GW $30 to make, $70 is profit. That's only for that box of miniatures, paints, etc., and would not include the costs of running the Warhammer Store you bought it from, etc. (and what that $70 pays for). Fun Fact: there's a Director in GW whose job is to keep the core gross margin at 70%...thus keeping prices low. That job sucks right now, because geopolitical events have driven costs up, from the the plastic that is an oil-related byproduct to the energy costs of melting said plastic into molds to form miniatures. Last year, I mentioned tariffs from the U.S. would be passed onto Hobbyists worldwide, as tariffs are paid when a product enters a country, before it's sold to the consumer. That decrease of -1.8% suggests the US market is about 18% of GW's business. (Bolt)gun to my head, I'd've estimated 20% before, as I knew North America was about about 40% overall, like US would be half of all NA. Turns out it's a little bit lower than that, which was interesting to me. The last pricing update came in October 2025, before the Half-Year report. How the core gross margin drops will be a red flag on how big a price hike to come. +++ Preview: Factory 4 and Why Change Drop Pods/Baneblade +++ The most confusing thing to me as of late is, why change the Drop Pod and, recently, the Baneblade. The Baneblade could be some shady profit motive, but why bother? It's not something everyone buys and what they did is take out certain weapon options to sell separately, so GW won't make much from that. The Drop Pod was the really confusing one and was a red flag...it's like they're just looking for ways to make them faster. A new cast for something like the Drop Pod isn't costless, it should be within £100,000, so it's like a hard-thought/fought decision. I think it's how GW production has trouble keeping up with demand. GW has kept its same 3 Factories...with improvements...but is producing 5x more product. The most precious resource in GW right now is time on the factory floor. GW hasn't really addressed it yet, and likely they'll spin it as increased efficiency, but I wanna know. +++ Preview: We Await the Full-Year Report +++ It should come with this week, maybe next week at the latest, because GW has increasingly more money to count. The main interesting thing is how licensed games like Space Marine II drove sales mainly by making 3rd party partners interested, and I expect that Half-Year's Trade's (i.e. FLGS) 25% growth to grow even more by the Full-Year. It's about growing The Hobby from the OUTside, not just upselling to existing players/painters. The bad thing is I expect GW's costs to have ballooned, just all of ours have, and they'll have to increase their own prices to keep up. So I'll be back in this thread, updating this post, reading your replies, later this week or early next...should be.

I just wanted to say this: the new Datasheet matches how Titus plays in the video games. Like remember how the the game mechanics in the video games with the Chainsword is it creates these temporary hitpoints that replenishes with each attack, so you just jump into a mob and start mashing that attack button come what may, and you're probably better off than any other tactic. That was my entire strat with the co-op horde mode until the final round. I remember at the time that Titus is like some kinda Khorne Berserker, and now he has 8 attacks like Eightbound. That cracks me up.

I always, always, ALWAYS lose my GW coins. I'm not a disorganised person. Sure, I leave some bitz in my workstation area, I don't organise my paints in alphabetical order because it shakes out the paints I use most just come to the front, but somehow those Flavour of the Month coins always disappear on me. ESPECIALLY the ones I really meant to safeguard and keep somewhere I'll never lose it. I think I have some sort of curse with these fake coins that have no legal tender. P.S. The pins stay with me. I keep them in this little velvet bag. Like I got these AoS badges. Those I can't seem to get rid of.

Did Horus decide Chaos was useful to stop the Imperium's fall rather than cause it. He thought HE, Horus alone, could use Chaos. You probably remember from literature classes the word hubris, pride, arrogance. Do you remember hamartia, the fatal flaw? If you're on False Gods, Horus Rising is probably still fresh in your memory. You remember the Mournival, Horus's 4 advisors? Horus's hamartia wasn't just hubris. Hamartia is translated as fatal flaw, but it's more like "to miss the mark," like missing a shot. Where did Horus miss the mark? I found I finally understood it in The End & the Death II, even before I read it, by just seeing the back cover art: 4 thrones. 4 main Chaos gods. The Mournival had Horus's 4 advisors. Horus conceptualised Chaos as advisors, in the end. I think in the earlier books Horus would be talking to Dorn, his brother, about how he had Abaddon on a long leash, but still on a leash. Fierce, capable Abaddon. The same with the rest of the Mournival, cunning little Horus Aximand, the jokester Torgaddon, straight-laced Loken. Throughout The End & the Death he was thinking of forming a new Mournival-like court with Dorn, Sanguinius, Constantine Valdor and even the Emperor as his new advisors, each tied with one of the Chaos powers. Horus that he had experience managing 4 adversarial advisors, and he did. He just mistook he could manage Chaos the same way. Horus thought he was their leader of the 4 powers instead of the 4 being his kings, totally misunderstood the nature of his relationship. He missed the mark...the Mark of Chaos, amirite?

Even in the lore of 40k, Knight Houses and the Techpriesthood are closer than the game suggests. You know how in 40k we don't really have allied detachments outside these exceptions like Inquisition or Rogue Trader forces anymore? They SHOULD be closer if the rules allowed. There's the novel Titanicus in 40k where Magos seconded to Knight Houses adopt their customs for diplomacy and pageantry and stuff. IIRC someone was trying to ingratiate themselves to a Knight Household and had to meet a Magos, and they did the Sign of the Cog, and the Techpriest politely showed them how to do it properly in a courtly manner, like a staff member at Buckingham Palace instructing someone how to bow to the King correctly. Like these Techpriests weren't just stuck in garage with the Titans, they did stuff. In 30k, the Knight Houses and the Mechanicum are even closer to that to my understanding. In Legiones Imperialis...Epic 30k...I remember my friend used the Mechanicum book to do what you're suggesting, because somehow the Mechanicum had a Force Org chart that more closely combine Knights than the other way around. He explained the details, I just didn't fully understand them, but perhaps our Legions players could fill you in. It's something to do with how Mechanicum Detachments work, which is meant to reflect the lore.

I remember Eugen Temba. I think you're right, so I'd like to separate the messenger from the message, just for the moment. Eugen Temba's corruption really personally offended Horus Lupercal. Horus considered him a friend, vouched for him to get his governorship, so saw his betrayal as against him as well as the Emperor and the Imperium. Thus, anything he said would be like fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, well... Eugen Temba, at that moment, was the wrong messenger for the right message. It totally foreshadows everything 10,000 years later. He basically said the tagline for Warhammer 40,000. But in-universe, the main crux of what you said is what did many, perhaps the majority, including prominent Traitors, think? Ezekyle Abaddon, Abaddon the Despoiler, Horus's number one son, the Warmaster of Chaos now, is a great example. Even in the very tail end of the Horus Heresy, when he rushed himself and everyone within reach headfirst towards their flagship the Vengeful Spirit to Horus's aid, he STILL shunned and avoided anything Chaos. Abaddon had Erebus kinda stalking him, nudging him towards accepting Chaos to aid him in this darkest hour. He was all "nope." There was even this scene in The End & the Death III where Abaddon directed his Justaerin Squad to look for clues on how to get to Horus. By this time, the Warp had so permeated the Vengeful Spirit that the whole ship was a magical maze, so you'd go through a door and you'd be like back down in the Imperial Palace suddenly. Abaddon's equerry found a clue! There were these Imperial Tarot cards, which were kinda relevant in this very psychic environment. You'd think Abaddon would welcome this news in this situation where every second counted. Instead, he was like, "DON'T TOUCH IT." Remember, this isn't some athame dagger. These were just cards. Abaddon's seen them before. The Imperial Tarot are psychically attuned in the same way that, say, a compass is attuned to Terra's magnetic field, that's how they tell you where North is. You're not going to become Magneto's mutant thrall by holding a compass. And that's why Abaddon's immediate reaction is so telling. He so distrusted Chaos that he'd shirk at something even vaguely mystical. And that's probably exactly how Abaddon ended up as Warmaster himself in Horus's stead, because 40k runs on irony. Horus had this mentality that he knew Chaos was bad, but he literally had a "I'm not addicted to it, I can give it up any time I like," to his detriment. How Abaddon took on that role, not despite knowing the dangers but because of it...it's something worth exploring as we go into the Scouring series.

This legit is such a good idea. As in, The Redeemed, and part of their redemption is to serve the Inquisition that hates them.

No, but year's not over yet!

“I, N1SB, pledge to keep track of 125% of my Hobby budget FROM 10th ed 40k FOR 11th ed 40k, from the dawn of January 1st 2026, through January 1st 2027. Whether I exceed that or turn that into savings / investments / emergency funds, I'll know where my money is." I'm very aware of my 40k spending for a simple reason: it was the same in 8th, 9th and 10th edition launches. It was pretty much all the same $ amount, each time for 1,000 point projects, whether it was a local Armies On Parade or local Crusade campaign. Super-predictable. Adding +25%, why? Because inflation's everywhere. (By the time there's a Psychic Awakening or some Campaign, I might do another purchase or 2, but that's always a different fiscal year.) I love your fiscal discipline like how I see my military veteran friends still instinctively go through the proper cautionary procedures when handling their weapons, even when they're unloaded. It's a good habit to have. I can tell, because if you consider 10 Gal Vorback splurging, then you have really good self-control. Our Warhammer Store manager is playing Word Bearers and he has 5. They're really good minis.

At the time of the reveal during the Game Awards, I was weirded out because there was just a flood of celebrities, like pro-wrestlers were there for the Street Fighter movie, Andrew Schultz seized the mic, Evanescence was performing...then David Harbour showed up. The last season of Stranger Things just started, all his co-stars from it were on the late night shows promoting it, for a second I thought there'd be a Stranger Things game being announced, then I noticed his shirt: He was moving, cameras were switching from full-stage to close-up, his jacket was shifting, but we all know the =][= when we see it. So he's in Total War:hammer 40k, but the plot thickens. Turns out about 2 years back, his wife Lily Allen had posted him. Implies he's a Black Templars player:

Sorry for late reply. Your Coven would have to capture enough of their own kind to give to the Slaanesh Night Lords in place of their own souls. And I think I literally ripped that off of Hellraiser, too. I think this was the deal Frank Cotton struck with Pinhead, to give him Kirsty Cotton. Why would the Night Lords entertain this? It's not just for the souls to Slaanesh, it's that they like the betrayal. Betrayal itself is a prize to them.

I was watching The Game Awards live and suddenly David Harbour (Stranger Things, Black Widow/Thunderbolts) came out and I was like "why is he wearing =][= on his shirt...wait a second..."